week 17
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD
Ryan Gusto
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
Hold · wait & see skill near league average (5.09); hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.50 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 29ERA 3.70WHIP 1.24W 0–0SV 0
Gusto is a hold — league average across the board.
ROS projects K 4 YTD → 29 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %19.0%—−2.4% ▼vs his ~21.4% career norm
Drivers
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (5.09)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed44.2%
lg avg 40.0% ▲+4.2%vs his norm —
86 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed9.3%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+1.3%vs his norm —
86 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.346
lg avg .315 ▲+.031vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is above the ~.315 league average — expect it to fall.
121 / 200 TBF
xERA5.09
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.99vs his norm —xERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
121 / 200 TBF
ERA5.13
lg avg 4.10 ▲+1.03vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
26.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %19.0%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−3.0%vs his norm −2.4% ▼
121 / 70 TBF
Walk %8.3%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.3%vs his norm +0.5% ▲Walk % is above his ~7.8% norm — expect it to fall.
121 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.313
lg avg .295 ▲+.018vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
86 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %10.0%
lg avg 11.0% ▼−1.0%vs his norm —
121 / 60 TBF
Chase %29.5%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+1.0%vs his norm —
121 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo93.9 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−0.1 mphvs his norm —
447 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 19.0%→20.5%signal29 K — K% 19.0% (signal) lifted to career ~21.4% → projected 20.5% over ~20 remaining IP.
xERA 5.09noise3.70 ERA — xERA 5.09 (noise) blended 0% skill / 100% league 3.70 at 3 IP.
BB% 8.3% + contactnoise1.24 WHIP — a 8% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.297 gives a 1.42 skill WHIP, blended 0%…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (middle)0 SV — role: middle, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep3.70 ERA, 1.24 WHIP
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.