Sean Newcomb
Newcomb is a sell-high — his 2.42 ERA is BABIP luck, not skill.
His ERA is 2.42, and the number holding it down is his BABIP-against: .267, against a league average of .295. BABIP-against needs around 800 balls in play to be reliable, and he has 221. That gap is luck, not a skill he owns. His expected ERA is 3.84, a run and a half higher than the box score, and his xERA has been stepping down across the sample, so even the corrected number may be optimistic. His strikeout rate is 22.4% and his walk rate is 8.5%, both right at league average — this is not a pitcher whose stuff is missing bats. The surface is doing the work; the underlying numbers are not. Sell high. The ROS line still reads 3.79 ERA and 1.29 WHIP with just 5 K — a deep-league trade window, so sell before that ratio catches the luck.
VS His Norm
- Walk %8.5%—−2.8% ▼vs his ~11.3% career norm
- Strikeout %22.4%—−0.6% ▼vs his ~23.0% career norm
Drivers
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.267 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 3.84 is 1.42 above the ERA — regression coming
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.