MLB Daily DeltaWeek 27 · September 27, 2026
week 27
this weekSELL
last weekSELL

Mason Barnett

ATH·P
data as of September 27, 2026·week 27
Sell stable xERA 5.08 +0.98 vs league with no luck excuse; move on.high 0.84
ROSK 0ERA 4.60WHIP 1.46W 0–0SV 0

Barnett is a sell — the skill is below league and the xERA is climbing.

His expected ERA is 5.08, nearly a full run above the league average of 4.1, and he has faced enough batters for that number to be reliable. Nothing in the profile is suppressing it. He strikes out 21.8% of hitters, right at league average, and he walks 13.1% — five points above the league rate of 8.0%. That is the problem: too many free baserunners, too few swings missed. He gets a swinging strike on 9.7% of pitches, well below the league mark, so the strikeout rate is not hiding better stuff. His xERA has been stepping up across the sample, which means the number is not a slow start — it is where he is. There is no unlucky BABIP-against to point at, no correction coming. The strikeout and walk profile is stable and it is the level he is at. Sell. A 4.60 ERA and 1.46 WHIP with no strikeout volume is streaming-only depth at best — drop him before the tax compounds.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %21.8%—+1.3% ▲vs his ~20.5% career norm
  • Walk %13.1%—+1.3% ▲vs his ~11.8% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALstable xERA 5.08 +0.98 vs league with no luck excuse
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed40.1%
40.1%*
lg avg 40.0% ▲+0.1%vs his norm —
147 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed8.8%
8.8%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.8%vs his norm —
147 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.343
.343*
lg avg .315 ▲+.028vs his norm —
229 / 200 TBF
xERA5.08
5.08*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.98vs his norm —
229 / 200 TBF
ERA7.02
7.02*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+2.92vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
50 / 200 IP
Strikeout %21.8%
norm21.8%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−0.2%vs his norm +1.3% ▲
229 / 70 TBF
Walk %13.1%
norm13.1%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+5.1%vs his norm +1.3% ▲
229 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.293
.293*
lg avg .295 ▼−.002vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
147 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %9.7%
9.7%*
lg avg 11.0% ▼−1.3%vs his norm —
229 / 60 TBF
Chase %26.6%
26.6%*
lg avg 28.5% ▼−1.9%vs his norm —
229 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo94.9 mph
94.9 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+0.9 mphvs his norm —
909 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 21.8%→21.2%signal0 K — K% 21.8% (signal) tempered to career ~20.5% → projected 21.2% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 5.08signal4.60 ERA — xERA 5.08 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 3.70 at 2 IP.
BB% 13.1% + contactsignal1.46 WHIP — a 13% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.295 gives a 1.57 skill WHIP, blended 6…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (middle)0 SV — role: middle, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop4.60 ERA, 1.46 WHIP

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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