MLB Daily DeltaWeek 25 · September 10, 2026
Engraved portrait of Drew Anderson
week 25
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD

Drew Anderson

data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
Hold · leans buy skill near league average (3.89); a hold that leans buy — skill sits a hair above league, worth watching.med 0.60
ROSK 7ERA 3.82WHIP 1.32W 0–0SV 0–0

Anderson is a hold — league-average skill, nothing unstable underneath.

His expected ERA is 3.89, close to the league average of 4.10, and his sample of 415 batters faced is well past the point where that number becomes reliable. His expected wOBA allowed is .305 against a league average of .315 — nearly identical territory, so nothing is really propping up or dragging down the line. The interesting part is the direction: his xERA has been stepping down across the sample, so the recent run-prevention is a little better than the full-season number. He strikes out 25.3% of batters, above league, and his walk rate of 9.9% is a touch high. With a 35.1% chase rate, opposing hitters swing at pitches outside the zone more than usual. There is no clear signal either way. Hold. Pair the 7 K and 3.82 ERA as a deep hold, no add needed — stream the deep wire if you must.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %25.3%+4.5%vs his ~20.8% career norm
  • Walk %9.9%+0.9%vs his ~9.0% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALskill near league average (3.89)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed39.2%
39.2%*
lg avg 40.0% −0.8%vs his norm —
263 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed8.4%
8.4%*
lg avg 8.0% +0.4%vs his norm —
263 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.305
believable since Jun 20.305*
lg avg .315 −.010vs his norm —
415 / 200 TBF
xERA3.89
3.89*
lg avg 4.10 −0.21vs his norm —
415 / 200 TBF
ERA3.80
3.80*
lg avg 4.10 −0.30vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league averageexpect it to rise.
97 / 200 IP
Strikeout %25.3%
norm25.3%*
lg avg 22.0% +3.3%vs his norm +4.5%
415 / 70 TBF
Walk %9.9%
norm9.9%*
lg avg 8.0% +1.9%vs his norm +0.9%
415 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.291
.291*
lg avg .295 −.004vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league averageexpect it to rise.
263 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %13.6%
13.6%*
lg avg 11.0% +2.6%vs his norm —
415 / 60 TBF
Chase %35.1%
35.1%*
lg avg 28.5% +6.6%vs his norm —
415 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo95.4 mph
95.4 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph +1.4 mphvs his norm —
1611 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 25.3%→23.8%signal7 K — K% 25.3% (signal) tempered to career ~20.8% → projected 23.8% over ~6 remaining IP.
xERA 3.89signal3.82 ERA — xERA 3.89 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 3.70 at 38 IP.
BB% 9.9% + contactsignal1.32 WHIP — a 10% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.294 gives a 1.36 skill WHIP, blended 6…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (closer)0-0 SV — role: closer.
rosterdeep2 SV, 3.82 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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