week 27
this weekHOLD
last week—
Carson Palmquist
data as of September 30, 2026·week 27
Hold · wait & see BABIP-against 0.400 elevated and unstable, the 7.71 ERA overstates the damage; but luck-free xERA 4.89 is +0.79 vs league, the level it regresses to is below average, not a buy; hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.55 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 0ERA 4.10WHIP 1.30W 0–0SV 0
Palmquist is a hold — the ERA is noise, the skill is below league
ROS projects K 3 YTD → 0 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %19.2%—+3.2% ▲vs his ~16.0% career norm
Drivers
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.400 elevated and unstable — the 7.71 ERA overstates the damage
- xeraNOISEbut luck-free xERA 4.89 is +0.79 vs league — the level it regresses to is below average, not a buy
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed23.1%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−16.9%vs his norm —
52 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed3.8%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−4.2%vs his norm —Barrel % Allowed is below the ~8.0% league average — expect it to rise.
52 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.337
lg avg .315 ▲+.022vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is above the ~.315 league average — expect it to fall.
78 / 200 TBF
xERA4.89
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.79vs his norm —xERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
78 / 200 TBF
ERA7.71
lg avg 4.10 ▲+3.61vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
16.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %19.2%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−2.8%vs his norm +3.2% ▲
78 / 70 TBF
Walk %10.3%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+2.3%vs his norm −3.6% ▼Walk % is below his ~13.9% norm — expect it to rise.
78 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.400
lg avg .295 ▲+.105vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
52 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %10.8%
lg avg 11.0% ▼−0.1%vs his norm —
78 / 60 TBF
Chase %34.3%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+5.8%vs his norm —
78 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo91.2 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−2.8 mphvs his norm —
313 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 19.2%→16.9%signal0 K — K% 19.2% (signal) tempered to career ~16.0% → projected 16.9% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 4.89noise4.10 ERA — xERA 4.89 (noise) blended 0% skill / 100% league 4.10 at 3 IP.
BB% 10.3% + contactnoise1.30 WHIP — a 10% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.302 gives a 1.52 skill WHIP, blended 0…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop0 K ROS, 4.10 ERA
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.