week 17
this weekHOLD
last weekNO CALL
Pete Fairbanks
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
new call as of July 18, 2026
Hold · wait & see skill near league average (4.67); hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.50 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 28ERA 3.70WHIP 1.24W 2–3SV 5–10
Fairbanks is a hold — limited data, skill near average.
ROS projects K 22 YTD → 28 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %29.2%—−1.0% ▼vs his ~30.2% career norm
Drivers
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (4.67)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed42.9%
lg avg 40.0% ▲+2.9%vs his norm —
77 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed13.0%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+5.0%vs his norm —
77 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.333
lg avg .315 ▲+.018vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is above the ~.315 league average — expect it to fall.
130 / 200 TBF
xERA4.67
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.57vs his norm —xERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
130 / 200 TBF
ERA6.83
lg avg 4.10 ▲+2.73vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
29 / 200 IP
Strikeout %29.2%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+7.2%vs his norm −1.0% ▼
130 / 70 TBF
Walk %9.2%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+1.2%vs his norm −0.1% ▼Walk % is below his ~9.3% norm — expect it to rise.
130 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.314
lg avg .295 ▲+.019vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
77 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %13.7%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+2.7%vs his norm —
130 / 60 TBF
Chase %34.5%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+6.0%vs his norm —
130 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo97.3 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+3.3 mphvs his norm —
541 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 29.2%→29.8%signal28 K — K% 29.2% (signal) lifted to career ~30.2% → projected 29.8% over ~19 remaining IP.
xERA 4.67noise3.70 ERA — xERA 4.67 (noise) blended 0% skill / 100% league 3.70 at 15 IP.
BB% 9.2% + contactnoise1.24 WHIP — a 9% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.297 gives a 1.27 skill WHIP, blended 0%…
run support + role2-3 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (closer)5-10 SV — role: closer.
rosterdeep13 SV, 3.70 ERA
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.