week 25
this weekHOLD
last weekNO CALL
Pete Fairbanks
data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
new call as of September 10, 2026
Hold · wait & see skill near league average (4.26); hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.50 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 6WHIP 1.24ERA 3.70W 0–1SV 1–2
Fairbanks is a hold — league average with a strikeout arm.
ROS projects K 22 YTD → 6 ROS, WHIP 1.30 YTD → 1.24 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %32.2%—+2.0% ▲vs his ~30.2% career norm
- Walk %10.7%—+1.4% ▲vs his ~9.3% career norm
Drivers
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (4.26)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed42.9%
lg avg 40.0% ▲+2.9%vs his norm —
98 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed12.2%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+4.2%vs his norm —
98 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.318
lg avg .315 ▲+.003vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is above the ~.315 league average — expect it to fall.
177 / 200 TBF
xERA4.26
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.16vs his norm —xERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
177 / 200 TBF
ERA6.03
lg avg 4.10 ▲+1.93vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
40.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %32.2%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+10.2%vs his norm +2.0% ▲
177 / 70 TBF
Walk %10.7%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+2.7%vs his norm +1.4% ▲
177 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.289
lg avg .295 ▼−.006vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
98 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %14.5%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+3.5%vs his norm —
177 / 60 TBF
Chase %32.3%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+3.8%vs his norm —
177 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo97.3 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+3.3 mphvs his norm —
738 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 32.2%→31.1%signal6 K — K% 32.2% (signal) tempered to career ~30.2% → projected 31.1% over ~4 remaining IP.
xERA 4.26noise3.70 ERA — xERA 4.26 (noise) blended 0% skill / 100% league 3.70 at 15 IP.
BB% 10.7% + contactsignal1.24 WHIP — a 11% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.294 gives a 1.27 skill WHIP, blended 0…
run support + role0-1 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (closer)1-2 SV — role: closer.
rosterdeep8 SV, 3.70 ERA
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.