week 31
this weekHOLD
last weekNO CALL
Pete Fairbanks
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
new call as of October 26, 2026
Hold · wait & see skill near league average (4.42); hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.50 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 0WHIP 1.24ERA 3.70W 0–0SV 0–0
Fairbanks is a hold — the profile is good, the sample isn't yet
ROS projects K 22 YTD → 0 ROS, WHIP 1.30 YTD → 1.24 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
VS His Norm
- Walk %11.5%—+2.1% ▲vs his ~9.3% career norm
- Strikeout %31.1%—+0.9% ▲vs his ~30.2% career norm
Drivers
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (4.42)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed43.1%
lg avg 40.0% ▲+3.1%vs his norm —
102 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed11.8%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+3.8%vs his norm —
102 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.322
lg avg .315 ▲+.007vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is above the ~.315 league average — expect it to fall.
183 / 200 TBF
xERA4.42
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.32vs his norm —xERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
183 / 200 TBF
ERA6.32
lg avg 4.10 ▲+2.22vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
41.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %31.1%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+9.1%vs his norm +0.9% ▲
183 / 70 TBF
Walk %11.5%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+3.5%vs his norm +2.1% ▲
183 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.287
lg avg .295 ▼−.008vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
102 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %14.4%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+3.4%vs his norm —
183 / 60 TBF
Chase %31.1%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+2.6%vs his norm —
183 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo97.2 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+3.2 mphvs his norm —
766 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 31.1%→30.6%signal0 K — K% 31.1% (signal) tempered to career ~30.2% → projected 30.6% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 4.42noise3.70 ERA — xERA 4.42 (noise) blended 0% skill / 100% league 3.70 at 15 IP.
BB% 11.5% + contactsignal1.24 WHIP — a 12% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.294 gives a 1.32 skill WHIP, blended 0…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (closer)0-0 SV — role: closer.
rosterdeep6 SV, 3.70 ERA
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.