MLB Daily DeltaWeek 17 · July 18, 2026
Engraved portrait of Taylor Rogers
week 17
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD

Taylor Rogers

MIN·P
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
Hold · wait & see BABIP-against 0.369 elevated and unstable, the 5.61 ERA overstates the damage; but luck-free xERA 4.45 is +0.35 vs league, the level it regresses to is below average, not a buy; hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.55
ROSK 20ERA 3.71WHIP 1.24W 1–1SV 1–3

Rogers is a hold — noise on both sides, settle in.

His ERA is ugly at 5.61, but that is partly bad luck: his BABIP-against is .369, well above .295 league average, and BABIP-against needs around 800 balls in play to be reliable — he has 108. The luck-free xERA sits at 4.45, still about 0.35 runs above league average, so the skill it regresses to is below average, not special. Limited data: neither the ERA nor the xERA is fully reliable at 154 TBF (xERA stabilizes near 200). His contact suppression is fine — 29.6% hard-hit allowed (league 40.0%) and 6.5% barrels (league 8.0%) — but his strikeout rate (19.5%) and swinging-strike rate (7.9%) are both below league. The surface oversells the damage, but the underlying level is not a buy. Hold. 20 K, 3.71 ERA, 1.24 WHIP: a deep-league hold with peripherals that don't justify an active add.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %19.5%—−7.8% ▼vs his ~27.3% career norm

Drivers

  • babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.369 elevated and unstable — the 5.61 ERA overstates the damage
  • xeraNOISEbut luck-free xERA 4.45 is +0.35 vs league — the level it regresses to is below average, not a buy
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed29.6%
29.6%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−10.4%vs his norm —
108 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed6.5%
6.5%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.5%vs his norm —
108 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.326
.326*
lg avg .315 ▲+.011vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is above the ~.315 league average — expect it to fall.
154 / 200 TBF
xERA4.45
4.45*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.35vs his norm —xERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
154 / 200 TBF
ERA5.61
5.61*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+1.51vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
33.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %19.5%
norm19.5%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−2.5%vs his norm −7.8% ▼
154 / 70 TBF
Walk %9.1%
norm9.1%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+1.1%vs his norm +1.8% ▲Walk % is above his ~7.3% norm — expect it to fall.
154 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.369
.369*
lg avg .295 ▲+.074vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
108 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %7.9%
7.9%*
lg avg 11.0% ▼−3.1%vs his norm —
154 / 60 TBF
Chase %27.6%
27.6%*
lg avg 28.5% ▼−0.9%vs his norm —
154 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo91.8 mph
91.8 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−2.2 mphvs his norm —
609 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 19.5%→23.9%signal20 K — K% 19.5% (signal) lifted to career ~27.3% → projected 23.9% over ~20 remaining IP.
xERA 4.45noise3.71 ERA — xERA 4.45 (noise) blended 2% skill / 98% league 3.70 at 22 IP.
BB% 9.1% + contactnoise1.24 WHIP — a 9% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.305 gives a 1.48 skill WHIP, blended 2%…
run support + role1-1 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (setup)1-3 SV — role: setup, in the save mix only situationally.
rosterdeep3.71 ERA, 1.24 WHIP

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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