Is Taylor Rogers a buy or sell for fantasy baseball?

Buy Low — underlying skill is better than results suggest; buy while the price is depressed.

What is Taylor Rogers's rest-of-season outlook?

BABIP .335 and velo down to 92 — ERA is the mirage.

week 25

this weekBUY-LOW

last weekHOLD

Taylor Rogers

MIN·P

data as of September 10, 2026·week 25

flipped from HOLD on September 10, 2026

Buy Low luck-free xERA 4.23 is right around league, a usable arm the ERA is hiding; fastball velocity stable and above league, the arm is fine — BABIP-against 0.335 elevated and unstable, bloating the ERA; buy the player, not the number.med 0.74

ROSK 4ERA 4.04WHIP 1.46W 0–0SV 0–1

Rogers is a buy-low — his ERA is BABIP noise, not skill.

His ERA is 4.70, and that number is not telling the truth. His BABIP-against is .335, 40 points above the league average of .295, and that gap is luck — BABIP-against needs around 800 balls in play to be reliable and he has 162. Strip out the noise and his expected ERA is 4.23, basically league average, and his xwOBA allowed of .317 sits right at the league mark. His fastball is still 92 mph and his hard-hit rate allowed is 27.8% against a 40% league average. Both are stable and the arm looks usable. The walk rate and strikeout rate are a concern, but the ERA is the number doing the lying right now. Buy low. Even so, 4 K and a 4.04 ERA rest-of-season keeps him waiver-wire, deep-league-only; the buy-low is about process, not a roster spot.

VS His Norm

Strikeout %18.9%—−8.4% ▼vs his ~27.3% career norm
Walk %11.3%—+4.0% ▲vs his ~7.3% career norm

Drivers

xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 4.23 is right around league — a usable arm the ERA is hiding
babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.335 elevated and unstable — bloating the ERA
p_fastball_veloSIGNALfastball velocity stable and above league — the arm is fine

metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?

Hard-Hit % Allowed27.8%

lg avg 40.0% ▼−12.2%vs his norm —

162 / 50 BBE

Barrel % Allowed6.2%

lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.8%vs his norm —

162 / 60 BBE

xwOBA Allowed.317

lg avg .315 ▲+.002vs his norm —

238 / 200 TBF

xERA4.23

lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.13vs his norm —

238 / 200 TBF

ERA4.70

lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.60vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.

51.7 / 200 IP

Strikeout %18.9%

lg avg 22.0% ▼−3.1%vs his norm −8.4% ▼

238 / 70 TBF

Walk %11.3%

lg avg 8.0% ▲+3.3%vs his norm +4.0% ▲

238 / 170 TBF

BABIP Against.335

lg avg .295 ▲+.040vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.

162 / 800 BIP

Swinging-Strike %7.7%

lg avg 11.0% ▼−3.3%vs his norm —

238 / 60 TBF

Chase %24.6%

lg avg 28.5% ▼−3.9%vs his norm —

238 / 60 TBF

Fastball Velo92.0 mph

lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−2.0 mphvs his norm —

927 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf

K% 18.9%→22.8%signal4 K — K% 18.9% (signal) lifted to career ~27.3% → projected 22.8% over ~5 remaining IP.

xERA 4.23signal4.04 ERA — xERA 4.23 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 3.70 at 22 IP.

BB% 11.3% + contactsignal1.46 WHIP — a 11% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.303 gives a 1.58 skill WHIP, blended 6…

run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.

role (setup)0-1 SV — role: setup, in the save mix only situationally.

rosterdrop4.04 ERA, 1.46 WHIP

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

VS His Norm

Drivers

5×5 ROS Outlook

Comparisons