MLB Daily DeltaWeek 31 · October 26, 2026
Engraved portrait of Taylor Rogers
week 31
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD

Taylor Rogers

data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
Hold · steady skill near league average (4.12); hold steady — skill tracks near league, no edge either way.med 0.60
ROSK 0ERA 3.97WHIP 1.46W 0–0SV 0–0

Rogers is a hold — league average, and the sample agrees.

His expected ERA is 4.12, right on the league average of 4.10, and that number is built on enough batters faced to trust it. The rest of the profile says the same thing without much argument. His expected wOBA allowed is .312 against a .315 league mark, and he is giving up hard contact at a 28% clip and barrels at 5.9% — both below league average. His strikeouts sit at 19.6% and his walks at 11.2%, a slightly out-of-balance combination that keeps him from a stronger call. His fastball is averaging 92.1 mph, well under the 94.0 league average, with swinging strikes at 8.1%. The one wrinkle is his expected ERA stepping up across the sample rather than settling. Even so, there is nothing unstable driving this either way. Hold. Streaming-only with 0 K and a 1.46 WHIP over the ROS line — a fringe arm to hold loosely, not a difference-maker.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %19.6%—−7.7% ▼vs his ~27.3% career norm
  • Walk %11.2%—+3.9% ▲vs his ~7.3% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALskill near league average (4.12)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed28.0%
28.0%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−12.0%vs his norm —
186 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed5.9%
5.9%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−2.1%vs his norm —
186 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.312
believable since Aug 14.312*
lg avg .315 ▼−.003vs his norm —
276 / 200 TBF
xERA4.12
4.12*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.02vs his norm —
276 / 200 TBF
ERA4.33
4.33*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.23vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
60.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %19.6%
norm19.6%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−2.4%vs his norm −7.7% ▼
276 / 70 TBF
Walk %11.2%
norm11.2%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+3.2%vs his norm +3.9% ▲
276 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.337
.337*
lg avg .295 ▲+.042vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
186 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %8.1%
8.1%*
lg avg 11.0% ▼−2.9%vs his norm —
276 / 60 TBF
Chase %25.5%
25.5%*
lg avg 28.5% ▼−3.0%vs his norm —
276 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo92.1 mph
92.1 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−1.9 mphvs his norm —
1076 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 19.6%→22.9%signal0 K — K% 19.6% (signal) lifted to career ~27.3% → projected 22.9% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 4.12signal3.97 ERA — xERA 4.12 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 3.70 at 22 IP.
BB% 11.2% + contactsignal1.46 WHIP — a 11% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.305 gives a 1.57 skill WHIP, blended 6…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (setup)0-0 SV — role: setup, in the save mix only situationally.
rosterdrop3.97 ERA, 1.46 WHIP

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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