week 17
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD
Tony Santillan
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
ON THE 15-DAY IL
Hold · wait & see skill near league average (5.16); hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.50 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 23ERA 3.74WHIP 1.24W 1–1SV 1–2
Santillan is a hold — league average, nothing clear yet.
ROS projects K 22 YTD → 23 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %20.9%—−5.9% ▼vs his ~26.8% career norm
Drivers
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (5.16)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed46.7%
lg avg 40.0% ▲+6.7%vs his norm —
92 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed10.9%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+2.9%vs his norm —
92 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.348
lg avg .315 ▲+.033vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is above the ~.315 league average — expect it to fall.
134 / 200 TBF
xERA5.16
lg avg 4.10 ▲+1.06vs his norm —xERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
134 / 200 TBF
ERA5.23
lg avg 4.10 ▲+1.13vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
31 / 200 IP
Strikeout %20.9%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−1.1%vs his norm −5.9% ▼
134 / 70 TBF
Walk %10.4%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+2.4%vs his norm −0.3% ▼Walk % is below his ~10.7% norm — expect it to rise.
134 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.247
lg avg .295 ▼−.048vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
92 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %10.3%
lg avg 11.0% ▼−0.7%vs his norm —
134 / 60 TBF
Chase %28.5%
lg avg 28.5% 0.0%vs his norm —
134 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo94.6 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+0.6 mphvs his norm —
498 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 20.9%→24.4%signal23 K — K% 20.9% (signal) lifted to career ~26.8% → projected 24.4% over ~21 remaining IP.
xERA 5.16noise3.74 ERA — xERA 5.16 (noise) blended 2% skill / 98% league 3.70 at 23 IP.
BB% 10.4% + contactnoise1.24 WHIP — a 10% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.289 gives a 1.44 skill WHIP, blended 2…
run support + role1-1 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (closer)1-2 SV — role: closer.
rosterdeep4 SV, 3.74 ERA
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.