week 25
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD
Tony Santillan
data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
Hold · wait & see skill near league average (6.88); hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.50 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 5WHIP 1.25ERA 3.78W 0–0SV 0–1
Santillan is a hold — his profile is red flags without a reliable sample.
ROS projects K 22 YTD → 5 ROS, WHIP 1.50 YTD → 1.25 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %19.2%—−7.6% ▼vs his ~26.8% career norm
- Walk %13.4%—+2.8% ▲vs his ~10.7% career norm
Drivers
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (6.88)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed46.5%
lg avg 40.0% ▲+6.5%vs his norm —
114 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed13.2%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+5.2%vs his norm —
114 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.391
lg avg .315 ▲+.076vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is above the ~.315 league average — expect it to fall.
172 / 200 TBF
xERA6.88
lg avg 4.10 ▲+2.78vs his norm —xERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
172 / 200 TBF
ERA6.63
lg avg 4.10 ▲+2.53vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
36.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %19.2%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−2.8%vs his norm −7.6% ▼
172 / 70 TBF
Walk %13.4%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+5.4%vs his norm +2.8% ▲
172 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.277
lg avg .295 ▼−.018vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
114 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %9.8%
lg avg 11.0% ▼−1.1%vs his norm —
172 / 60 TBF
Chase %25.7%
lg avg 28.5% ▼−2.8%vs his norm —
172 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo94.6 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+0.6 mphvs his norm —
628 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 19.2%→23.3%signal5 K — K% 19.2% (signal) lifted to career ~26.8% → projected 23.3% over ~5 remaining IP.
xERA 6.88noise3.78 ERA — xERA 6.88 (noise) blended 2% skill / 98% league 3.70 at 23 IP.
BB% 13.4% + contactsignal1.25 WHIP — a 13% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.292 gives a 1.63 skill WHIP, blended 2…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (closer)0-1 SV — role: closer.
rosterdeep2 SV, 3.78 ERA
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.