week 31
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD
Tony Santillan
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
Hold · wait & see skill near league average (6.68); hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.50 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 0WHIP 1.25ERA 3.77W 0–0SV 0–0
Santillan is a hold — the strikeout and walk profile points to average.
ROS projects K 22 YTD → 0 ROS, WHIP 1.50 YTD → 1.25 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %18.8%—−8.0% ▼vs his ~26.8% career norm
- Walk %14.7%—+4.0% ▲vs his ~10.7% career norm
Drivers
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (6.68)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed45.6%
lg avg 40.0% ▲+5.6%vs his norm —
125 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed13.6%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+5.6%vs his norm —
125 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.385
lg avg .315 ▲+.070vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is above the ~.315 league average — expect it to fall.
191 / 200 TBF
xERA6.68
lg avg 4.10 ▲+2.58vs his norm —xERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
191 / 200 TBF
ERA6.42
lg avg 4.10 ▲+2.32vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
40.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %18.8%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−3.2%vs his norm −8.0% ▼
191 / 70 TBF
Walk %14.7%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+6.7%vs his norm +4.0% ▲
191 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.261
lg avg .295 ▼−.034vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
125 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %10.0%
lg avg 11.0% ▼−1.0%vs his norm —
191 / 60 TBF
Chase %25.3%
lg avg 28.5% ▼−3.2%vs his norm —
191 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo94.5 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+0.5 mphvs his norm —
698 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 18.8%→22.9%signal0 K — K% 18.8% (signal) lifted to career ~26.8% → projected 22.9% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 6.68noise3.77 ERA — xERA 6.68 (noise) blended 2% skill / 98% league 3.70 at 23 IP.
BB% 14.7% + contactsignal1.25 WHIP — a 15% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.290 gives a 1.69 skill WHIP, blended 2…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (closer)0-0 SV — role: closer.
rosterdeep2 SV, 3.77 ERA
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.