week 31
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD
AJ Smith-Shawver
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
Hold · wait & see skill near league average (4.82); hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.50 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 0ERA 4.10WHIP 1.30W 0–0SV 0
Smith-Shawver is a hold — league-average arm, nothing sharp either way.
ROS projects K 4 YTD → 0 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %18.8%—−2.2% ▼vs his ~21.0% career norm
Drivers
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (4.82)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed37.4%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−2.6%vs his norm —
99 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed9.1%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+1.1%vs his norm —
99 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.335
lg avg .315 ▲+.020vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is above the ~.315 league average — expect it to fall.
144 / 200 TBF
xERA4.82
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.72vs his norm —xERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
144 / 200 TBF
ERA6.61
lg avg 4.10 ▲+2.51vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
31.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %18.8%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−3.2%vs his norm −2.2% ▼
144 / 70 TBF
Walk %11.1%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+3.1%vs his norm +0.3% ▲Walk % is above his ~10.8% norm — expect it to fall.
144 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.272
lg avg .295 ▼−.023vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
99 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %11.7%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+0.7%vs his norm —
144 / 60 TBF
Chase %31.4%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+2.9%vs his norm —
144 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo96.3 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+2.3 mphvs his norm —
573 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 18.8%→20.1%signal0 K — K% 18.8% (signal) lifted to career ~21.0% → projected 20.1% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 4.82noise4.10 ERA — xERA 4.82 (noise) blended 0% skill / 100% league 4.10 at 4 IP.
BB% 11.1% + contactnoise1.30 WHIP — a 11% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.292 gives a 1.53 skill WHIP, blended 0…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop0 K ROS, 4.10 ERA
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.