week 25
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD
AJ Smith-Shawver
data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
Hold · wait & see skill near league average (4.82); hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.50 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 10ERA 4.10WHIP 1.30W 0–0SV 0
Smith-Shawver is a hold — league average across the board
ROS projects K 4 YTD → 10 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %17.5%—−3.5% ▼vs his ~21.0% career norm
Drivers
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (4.82)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed38.0%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−2.0%vs his norm —
71 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed8.5%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.5%vs his norm —
71 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.336
lg avg .315 ▲+.021vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is above the ~.315 league average — expect it to fall.
103 / 200 TBF
xERA4.82
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.72vs his norm —xERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
103 / 200 TBF
ERA7.71
lg avg 4.10 ▲+3.61vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
21 / 200 IP
Strikeout %17.5%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−4.5%vs his norm −3.5% ▼
103 / 70 TBF
Walk %12.6%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+4.6%vs his norm +1.8% ▲Walk % is above his ~10.8% norm — expect it to fall.
103 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.313
lg avg .295 ▲+.018vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
71 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %11.5%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+0.5%vs his norm —
103 / 60 TBF
Chase %28.9%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+0.4%vs his norm —
103 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo96.0 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+2.0 mphvs his norm —
401 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 17.5%→19.8%signal10 K — K% 17.5% (signal) lifted to career ~21.0% → projected 19.8% over ~10 remaining IP.
xERA 4.82noise4.10 ERA — xERA 4.82 (noise) blended 0% skill / 100% league 4.10 at 4 IP.
BB% 12.6% + contactnoise1.30 WHIP — a 13% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.297 gives a 1.64 skill WHIP, blended 0…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop10 K ROS, 4.10 ERA
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.