week 17
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD
Matt Svanson
data as of July 21, 2026·week 17
Hold · wait & see BABIP-against 0.336 elevated and unstable, the 6.42 ERA overstates the damage; but luck-free xERA 5.63 is +1.53 vs league, the level it regresses to is below average, not a buy; hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.55 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 24WHIP 1.25ERA 3.80W 0–1SV 0
Svanson is a hold — limited data, no edge yet.
ROS projects K 26 YTD → 24 ROS, WHIP 1.95 YTD → 1.25 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %21.3%—−4.8% ▼vs his ~26.1% career norm
- Walk %10.1%—+0.4% ▲vs his ~9.7% career norm
Drivers
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.336 elevated and unstable — the 6.42 ERA overstates the damage
- xeraNOISEbut luck-free xERA 5.63 is +1.53 vs league — the level it regresses to is below average, not a buy
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed45.7%
lg avg 40.0% ▲+5.7%vs his norm —
127 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed7.1%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.9%vs his norm —
127 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.360
lg avg .315 ▲+.045vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is above the ~.315 league average — expect it to fall.
188 / 200 TBF
xERA5.63
lg avg 4.10 ▲+1.53vs his norm —xERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
188 / 200 TBF
ERA6.42
lg avg 4.10 ▲+2.32vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
40.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %21.3%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−0.7%vs his norm −4.8% ▼
188 / 70 TBF
Walk %10.1%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+2.1%vs his norm +0.4% ▲
188 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.336
lg avg .295 ▲+.041vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
127 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %9.2%
lg avg 11.0% ▼−1.8%vs his norm —
188 / 60 TBF
Chase %24.6%
lg avg 28.5% ▼−3.9%vs his norm —
188 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo97.0 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+3.0 mphvs his norm —
715 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 21.3%→23.8%signal24 K — K% 21.3% (signal) lifted to career ~26.1% → projected 23.8% over ~21 remaining IP.
xERA 5.63noise3.80 ERA — xERA 5.63 (noise) blended 5% skill / 95% league 3.70 at 26 IP.
BB% 10.1% + contactsignal1.25 WHIP — a 10% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.301 gives a 1.47 skill WHIP, blended 5…
run support + role0-1 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (middle)0 SV — role: middle, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep3.80 ERA, 1.25 WHIP
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.