MLB Daily DeltaWeek 27 · September 30, 2026
Portrait of Lucas Erceg
Lucas Erceg
KC · P
Change to
Matt Svanson
STL · P
Change to
Who's more valuable, rest of season

Too close to call.

They split your categories 1–1, 2 even. Take whoever fills a bigger need.

Head-to-head
K
◀
ERA
WHIP
▶
W
SV n/a

Lucas Erceg wins 1 (ERA); Matt Svanson wins 1 (WHIP); 2 even; SV n/a.

04

Under the hood

Underlying skill — each value vs league avg
Fastball Velolg 94.0 · higher = better
Lucas Erceg
97.3
Matt Svanson
96.4
Swinging-Strike %lg 11.0% · higher = better
Lucas Erceg
9.9%
Matt Svanson
9.2%
Strikeout %lg 22.0% · higher = better
Lucas Erceg
14.9%
Matt Svanson
19.8%
Chase %lg 28.5% · higher = better
Lucas Erceg
28.4%
Matt Svanson
25.2%
Hard-Hit % Allowedlg 40.0% · lower = better
Lucas Erceg
36.5%
Matt Svanson
44.8%
Barrel % Allowedlg 8.0% · lower = better
Lucas Erceg
4.5%
Matt Svanson
7.0%
xwOBA Allowedlg .315 · lower = better
Lucas Erceg
.330
Matt Svanson
.369
stabilized — trust it · small sample yet · dashed = league avg · right = better
05

The tape

Rest-of-season projection · bold = leads
rest-of-season projection current season projection range
Rate · earned-run quality
ERAlower is better
Lucas Erceg
2.548.25
lg xERA 4.10
now 6.33
4.32
Matt Svanson
2.548.25
lg xERA 4.10
now 8.77
5.21
WHIPlower is better
Lucas Erceg
1.222.16
now 1.92
1.60
Matt Svanson
1.222.16
now 1.95
1.43

Volume · rest of season
Strikeoutshigher is better
Lucas Erceg
4036.40
now 18
0
Matt Svanson
4036.40
now 26
0
Winshigher is better
Lucas Erceg
.0004.20
now 3
0–0
Matt Svanson
.0004.20
now 1
0–0

SV — not applicable. Both pitch out of the rotation.

If you already own them — trade angle
Hold · leans sellLucas Erceg — hold.conf 0.60
Hold · leans sellMatt Svanson — hold.conf 0.60
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