week 27
this weekSELL
last weekSELL
Jake Irvin
data as of September 27, 2026·week 27
Sell stable xERA 5.19 +1.09 vs league with no luck excuse; move on.high 0.88 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 0ERA 4.81WHIP 1.36W 0–0SV 0
Irvin is a sell — his expected ERA says the skill is below league.
Stable skill below league and not unlucky. Sell.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %23.3%—+4.4% ▲vs his ~18.9% career norm
- Walk %10.3%—+2.1% ▲vs his ~8.2% career norm
Drivers
- xeraSIGNALstable xERA 5.19 +1.09 vs league with no luck excuse
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed44.6%
lg avg 40.0% ▲+4.6%vs his norm —
287 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed10.8%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+2.8%vs his norm —
287 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.346
lg avg .315 ▲+.031vs his norm —
446 / 200 TBF
xERA5.19
lg avg 4.10 ▲+1.09vs his norm —
446 / 200 TBF
ERA5.40
lg avg 4.10 ▲+1.30vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
101.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %23.3%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+1.3%vs his norm +4.4% ▲
446 / 70 TBF
Walk %10.3%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+2.3%vs his norm +2.1% ▲
446 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.279
lg avg .295 ▼−.016vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
287 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %11.1%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+0.1%vs his norm —
446 / 60 TBF
Chase %24.8%
lg avg 28.5% ▼−3.7%vs his norm —
446 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo93.2 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−0.8 mphvs his norm —
1838 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 23.3%→21.9%signal0 K — K% 23.3% (signal) tempered to career ~18.9% → projected 21.9% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 5.19signal4.81 ERA — xERA 5.19 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 4.10 at 52 IP.
BB% 10.3% + contactsignal1.36 WHIP — a 10% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.289 gives a 1.39 skill WHIP, blended 6…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop0 K ROS, 4.81 ERA
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.