week 12
this weekSELL
last week—
Jake Irvin
data as of June 13, 2026·week 12
ON THE 15-DAY IL
Sell stable xERA 5.06 +0.96 vs league with no luck excuse; move on.high 0.84 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 87ERA 4.72WHIP 1.33W 2–5SV 0
Irvin is a sell — his xERA shows below-league skill.
Stable skill below league and not unlucky. Sell.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %25.4%—+6.5% ▲vs his ~18.9% career norm
- Walk %9.6%—+1.4% ▲vs his ~8.2% career norm
Drivers
- xeraSIGNALstable xERA 5.06 +0.96 vs league with no luck excuse
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed45.8%
lg avg 40.0% ▲+5.8%vs his norm —
142 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed12.0%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+4.0%vs his norm —
142 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.349
lg avg .315 ▲+.034vs his norm —
228 / 200 TBF
xERA5.06
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.96vs his norm —
228 / 200 TBF
ERA5.23
lg avg 4.10 ▲+1.13vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
51.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %25.4%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+3.4%vs his norm +6.5% ▲
228 / 70 TBF
Walk %9.6%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+1.6%vs his norm +1.4% ▲
228 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.304
lg avg .295 ▲+.009vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
142 / 800 BIP
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 25.4%→22.4%signal87 K — K% 25.4% (signal) tempered to career ~18.9% → projected 22.4% over ~88 remaining…
xERA 5.06signal4.72 ERA — xERA 5.06 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 4.10 at 52 IP.
BB% 9.6% + contactsignal1.33 WHIP — a 10% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.297 gives a 1.35 skill WHIP, blended 6…
run support + role2-5 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep87 K ROS, 4.72 ERA
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.