MLB Daily DeltaWeek 18 · July 28, 2026
week 18
this weekSELL
last weekSELL

Jake Irvin

WSH·P
data as of July 28, 2026·week 18
ON THE 60-DAY IL
Sell stable xERA 5.23 +1.13 vs league with no luck excuse; move on.high 0.89
ROSK 44ERA 4.83WHIP 1.33W 1–2SV 0

Irvin is a sell — skill below league, ERA isn't hiding it.

His expected ERA is 5.23, more than a run above the league average of 4.10, and that number has been stepping up across the sample — meaning the trend is worsening, not stabilizing. He has faced enough batters for xERA to be reliable, so what you see is what he is. His BABIP-against is not supplied, but his xwOBA allowed is .349, well above the .315 league average, and his ball-in-play metrics confirm the story: hard-hit rate 45.8% versus 40.0% league, barrel rate 12.0% versus 8.0% — both stable and unfavorable. He does strike out 25.4% of batters, slightly above league, but his walk rate is elevated and his chase rate is below league, so the stuff is not missing bats at an elite level. There is no luck story to fall back on. This is the level he is at. Sell. 44 K and a 4.83 ERA at 1.33 WHIP is a streaming-only arm, not a keeper.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %25.4%—+6.5% ▲vs his ~18.9% career norm
  • Walk %9.6%—+1.4% ▲vs his ~8.2% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALstable xERA 5.23 +1.13 vs league with no luck excuse
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed45.8%
45.8%*
lg avg 40.0% ▲+5.8%vs his norm —
142 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed12.0%
12.0%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+4.0%vs his norm —
142 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.349
.349*
lg avg .315 ▲+.034vs his norm —
228 / 200 TBF
xERA5.23
5.23*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+1.13vs his norm —
228 / 200 TBF
ERA5.23
5.23*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+1.13vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
51.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %25.4%
norm25.4%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+3.4%vs his norm +6.5% ▲
228 / 70 TBF
Walk %9.6%
norm9.6%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+1.6%vs his norm +1.4% ▲
228 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.304
.304*
lg avg .295 ▲+.009vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
142 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %11.8%
11.8%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+0.8%vs his norm —
228 / 60 TBF
Chase %25.0%
25.0%*
lg avg 28.5% ▼−3.5%vs his norm —
228 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo92.9 mph
92.9 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−1.1 mphvs his norm —
949 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 25.4%→22.4%signal44 K — K% 25.4% (signal) tempered to career ~18.9% → projected 22.4% over ~45 remaining…
xERA 5.23signal4.83 ERA — xERA 5.23 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 4.10 at 52 IP.
BB% 9.6% + contactsignal1.33 WHIP — a 10% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.297 gives a 1.35 skill WHIP, blended 6…
run support + role1-2 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop44 K ROS, 4.83 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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