week 17
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD
Mark Leiter Jr.
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
Hold · wait & see skill near league average (4.10); hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.50 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 21ERA 3.72WHIP 1.24W 0–0SV 2–4
Leiter Jr. is a hold — league average, no edge.
ROS projects K 25 YTD → 21 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %26.1%—+0.6% ▲vs his ~25.5% career norm
Drivers
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (4.10)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed31.5%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−8.5%vs his norm —
89 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed3.4%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−4.6%vs his norm —
89 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.314
lg avg .315 ▼−.001vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
138 / 200 TBF
xERA4.10
lg avg 4.10 0.00vs his norm —xERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
138 / 200 TBF
ERA4.41
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.31vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
32.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %26.1%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+4.1%vs his norm +0.6% ▲
138 / 70 TBF
Walk %7.2%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.8%vs his norm −1.2% ▼Walk % is below his ~8.4% norm — expect it to rise.
138 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.345
lg avg .295 ▲+.050vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
89 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %14.0%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+3.0%vs his norm —
138 / 60 TBF
Chase %35.0%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+6.5%vs his norm —
138 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo92.2 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−1.8 mphvs his norm —
520 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 26.1%→25.7%signal21 K — K% 26.1% (signal) tempered to career ~25.5% → projected 25.7% over ~21 remaining…
xERA 4.10noise3.72 ERA — xERA 4.10 (noise) blended 4% skill / 96% league 3.70 at 25 IP.
BB% 7.2% + contactnoise1.24 WHIP — a 7% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.301 gives a 1.26 skill WHIP, blended 4%…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (closer)2-4 SV — role: closer.
rosterdeep7 SV, 3.72 ERA
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.