week 25
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD
Mark Leiter Jr.
data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
ON THE 60-DAY IL
Hold · wait & see skill near league average (4.20); hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.50 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 5ERA 3.72WHIP 1.24W 0–0SV 1–1
Leiter is a hold — league average with no luck pulling either way.
ROS projects K 25 YTD → 5 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %26.4%—+0.9% ▲vs his ~25.5% career norm
Drivers
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (4.20)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed31.9%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−8.1%vs his norm —
91 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed3.3%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−4.7%vs his norm —
91 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.316
lg avg .315 ▲+.001vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is above the ~.315 league average — expect it to fall.
144 / 200 TBF
xERA4.20
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.10vs his norm —xERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
144 / 200 TBF
ERA4.28
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.18vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
33.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %26.4%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+4.4%vs his norm +0.9% ▲
144 / 70 TBF
Walk %7.6%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.4%vs his norm −0.8% ▼Walk % is below his ~8.4% norm — expect it to rise.
144 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.348
lg avg .295 ▲+.053vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
91 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %14.0%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+3.0%vs his norm —
144 / 60 TBF
Chase %33.8%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+5.3%vs his norm —
144 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo92.2 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−1.8 mphvs his norm —
551 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 26.4%→25.9%signal5 K — K% 26.4% (signal) tempered to career ~25.5% → projected 25.9% over ~5 remaining IP.
xERA 4.20noise3.72 ERA — xERA 4.20 (noise) blended 4% skill / 96% league 3.70 at 25 IP.
BB% 7.6% + contactnoise1.24 WHIP — a 8% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.301 gives a 1.27 skill WHIP, blended 4%…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (closer)1-1 SV — role: closer.
rosterdeep5 SV, 3.72 ERA
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.