MLB Daily DeltaWeek 10 · June 3, 2026
Engraved portrait of Mark Leiter Jr.
week 10
this weekBUY-LOW
last weekBUY-LOW
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Mark Leiter Jr.

ATH·P
data as of June 3, 2026·week 10

Leiter is a buy-low — BABIP is hiding the skill.

His ERA is 5.47, but the real story is the BABIP-against: .361, 66 points above league average. BABIP-against needs around 800 balls in play to be reliable; he has 74. That gap is luck, not a reflection of his pitching. Strip out the noise and his expected ERA is 4.62, already below the surface line. The skill metrics back that up: he strikes out 23.1% of batters, just above league average, while holding hard-hit rate to 32.4% (league average 40.0%) and barrel rate to 4.1% (league average 8.0%). Both are past their stabilization thresholds. This is a pitcher whose stuff is better than his ERA says, stuck in a luck-driven hole. Limited data: this call rests on the first stable sample of the season, but the contact-suppression and strikeout numbers are credible. Buy low.

Buy Low
high0.85

Drivers

  • babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.361 elevated and unstable — bloating the ERA
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed32.4%
32.4%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−7.6%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL74 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed4.1%
4.1%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−3.9%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL74 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.337
.337
lg avg .315 ▲+.022too early to trust
NOISE108 / 200 TBF
xERA4.62
4.62
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.52too early to trust
NOISE108 / 200 TBF
ERA5.47
5.47
lg avg 4.10 ▲+1.37too early to trust
NOISE24.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %23.1%
23.1%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+1.1%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL108 / 70 TBF
Walk %7.4%
7.4%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.6%too early to trust
NOISE108 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.361
.361
lg avg .295 ▲+.066too early to trust
NOISE74 / 800 BIP