week 27
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD
Tristan Beck
data as of September 27, 2026·week 27
Hold · wait & see strikeout rate 9% is stable and well below league, limits the ceiling — skill near league average (4.23); hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.50 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 0ERA 3.70WHIP 1.24W 0–0SV 0
Beck is a hold — league-average skill, nothing unstable to exploit.
ROS projects K 1 YTD → 0 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %9.2%—−9.1% ▼vs his ~18.3% career norm
Drivers
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (4.23)
- p_k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 9% is stable and well below league — limits the ceiling
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed36.5%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−3.5%vs his norm —
63 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed7.9%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.1%vs his norm —
63 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.316
lg avg .315 ▲+.001vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is above the ~.315 league average — expect it to fall.
76 / 200 TBF
xERA4.23
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.13vs his norm —xERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
76 / 200 TBF
ERA5.60
lg avg 4.10 ▲+1.50vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
17.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %9.2%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−12.8%vs his norm −9.1% ▼
76 / 70 TBF
Walk %6.6%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.4%vs his norm +0.3% ▲Walk % is above his ~6.3% norm — expect it to fall.
76 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.267
lg avg .295 ▼−.028vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
63 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %8.3%
lg avg 11.0% ▼−2.7%vs his norm —
76 / 60 TBF
Chase %27.2%
lg avg 28.5% ▼−1.3%vs his norm —
76 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo94.7 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+0.7 mphvs his norm —
289 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 9.2%→15.8%signal0 K — K% 9.2% (signal) lifted to career ~18.3% → projected 15.8% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 4.23noise3.70 ERA — xERA 4.23 (noise) blended 0% skill / 100% league 3.70 at 4 IP.
BB% 6.6% + contactnoise1.24 WHIP — a 7% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.293 gives a 1.50 skill WHIP, blended 0%…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (middle)0 SV — role: middle, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep3.70 ERA, 1.24 WHIP
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.