MLB Daily DeltaWeek 31 · October 26, 2026
week 31
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekSELL-HIGH

Ray Kerr

ATL·P
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
Sell High BABIP-against 0.146 suppressed and unstable, flattering the ERA; luck-free xERA 3.30 is 1.83 above the ERA, regression coming; sell into the hype before regression.high 0.95
ROSK 0ERA 3.70WHIP 1.24W 0–0SV 0

Kerr is a sell-high — his 1.47 ERA is BABIP luck, not skill.

His ERA is 1.47, but almost none of that is repeatable. His BABIP-against is .146, 149 points below the league average of .295, and that number is doing the heavy lifting. BABIP-against needs around 800 balls in play to be reliable; he has 51. His expected ERA is 3.30, nearly two full runs above what the box score shows, so the regression is already priced into the underlying numbers. The encouraging part is real: he holds hitters to a 31.4% hard-hit rate against a 40% league average, and his chase rate is 35.4%, well above league. The stuff is legitimate. But limited data here — this call rests on the first stable sample of the season, not a track record. The surface is flattered. Sell high. Deep-league sell: those 0 K / 3.70 ERA / 1.24 WHIP / 0-0 W / 0 SV numbers are the trade window, so flip the inflated line before regression hits.

Drivers

  • babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.146 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
  • xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 3.30 is 1.83 above the ERA — regression coming
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed31.4%
31.4%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−8.6%vs his norm —
51 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed5.9%
5.9%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−2.1%vs his norm —Barrel % Allowed is below the ~8.0% league average — expect it to rise.
51 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.281
.281*
lg avg .315 ▼−.034vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
66 / 200 TBF
xERA3.30
3.30*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.80vs his norm —xERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
66 / 200 TBF
ERA1.47
1.47*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−2.63vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
18.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %16.7%
norm16.7%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−5.3%vs his norm −9.8% ▼Strikeout % is below his ~26.5% norm — expect it to rise.
66 / 70 TBF
Walk %3.0%
norm3.0%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−5.0%vs his norm −5.2% ▼Walk % is below his ~8.2% norm — expect it to rise.
66 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.146
.146*
lg avg .295 ▼−.149vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
51 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %12.3%
12.3%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+1.3%vs his norm —
66 / 60 TBF
Chase %35.4%
35.4%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+6.9%vs his norm —
66 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo94.9 mph
94.9 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+0.9 mphvs his norm —
212 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 16.7%→24.1%noise0 K — K% 16.7% (noise) lifted to career ~26.5% → projected 24.1% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 3.30noise3.70 ERA — xERA 3.30 (noise) blended 0% skill / 100% league 3.70 at 1 IP.
BB% 3.0% + contactnoise1.24 WHIP — a 3% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.285 gives a 1.18 skill WHIP, blended 0%…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (middle)0 SV — role: middle, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep3.70 ERA, 1.24 WHIP

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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