MLB Daily DeltaWeek 27 · September 27, 2026
week 27
this weekSELL
last weekSELL

Dean Kremer

MIN·P
data as of September 27, 2026·week 27
Sell stable xERA 4.47 +0.37 vs league with no luck excuse; move on.med 0.66
ROSK 0ERA 4.34WHIP 1.28W 0–0SV 0

Kremer is a sell — the expected ERA sits above league with no luck to blame.

His expected ERA is 4.47, a third of a run above the league average of 4.10, and he has faced enough batters for that number to be reliable. Nothing in the profile is inflated or suppressed by luck. He limits hard contact at a 35.8% clip, better than the 40% league mark, but everything else points the wrong way: a .324 expected wOBA allowed against a .315 league average, and a barrel rate of 9.6% above the 8% league mark. The trajectory says this is not a cold stretch — his xERA has been stepping up across the sample. He strikes out 24% of batters and walks 8.5%, both modestly better than league, but not enough to offset the contact quality. The line is what it is. Sell. 0 K and a 4.34 ERA make him streaming-only; a drop-tier arm no contender should hold.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %24.0%—+3.4% ▲vs his ~20.6% career norm
  • Walk %8.5%—+0.7% ▲vs his ~7.8% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALstable xERA 4.47 +0.37 vs league with no luck excuse
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed35.8%
35.8%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−4.2%vs his norm —
229 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed9.6%
9.6%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+1.6%vs his norm —
229 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.324
.324*
lg avg .315 ▲+.009vs his norm —
341 / 200 TBF
xERA4.47
4.47*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.37vs his norm —
341 / 200 TBF
ERA4.97
4.97*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.87vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
83.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %24.0%
norm24.0%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+2.0%vs his norm +3.4% ▲
341 / 70 TBF
Walk %8.5%
norm8.5%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.5%vs his norm +0.7% ▲
341 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.255
.255*
lg avg .295 ▼−.040vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
229 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %13.2%
13.2%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+2.2%vs his norm —
341 / 60 TBF
Chase %29.6%
29.6%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+1.1%vs his norm —
341 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo92.6 mph
92.6 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−1.4 mphvs his norm —
1392 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 24.0%→22.8%signal0 K — K% 24.0% (signal) tempered to career ~20.6% → projected 22.8% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 4.47signal4.34 ERA — xERA 4.47 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 4.10 at 11 IP.
BB% 8.5% + contactsignal1.28 WHIP — a 8% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.283 gives a 1.28 skill WHIP.
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop0 K ROS, 4.34 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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