MLB Daily DeltaWeek 31 · October 26, 2026
Engraved portrait of Daniel Lynch IV
week 31
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekSELL-HIGH

Daniel Lynch IV

KC·P
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
Sell High luck-free xERA 4.63 is 0.55 above the ERA, regression coming; strikeout rate 16% is stable and well below league, limits the ceiling — BABIP-against 0.240 suppressed and unstable, flattering the ERA; sell into the hype before regression.high 0.87
ROSK 0ERA 4.30WHIP 1.30W 0–0SV 0–0

Lynch is a sell-high — his ERA hides the coming regression

His ERA is 4.08, but the number holding it there is one he can't repeat. His BABIP-against is .240, 55 points below the league average of .295, and BABIP-against needs around 800 balls in play to be reliable — he has 270. That gap is luck, not a skill he owns. Strip it out and his expected ERA is 4.63, a half-run worse than the box score, and that expected number has been stepping up across the sample. The strikeouts don't offer a floor either: 15.7% is well below the league's 22%, his career baseline is 19%, and the rate has been stepping down. A pitcher who isn't missing bats is a pitcher who can't absorb a luck correction. Sell high. Regression to a 4.30 ERA / 1.30 WHIP makes him a drop, not a hold — sell the inflated line while a trade window exists.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %15.7%—−3.3% ▼vs his ~19.0% career norm
  • Walk %7.3%—−1.4% ▼vs his ~8.7% career norm

Drivers

  • babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.240 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
  • xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 4.63 is 0.55 above the ERA — regression coming
  • p_k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 16% is stable and well below league — limits the ceiling
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed38.1%
38.1%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−1.9%vs his norm —
270 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed7.0%
believable since Jun 47.0%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.0%vs his norm —
270 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.329
.329*
lg avg .315 ▲+.014vs his norm —
356 / 200 TBF
xERA4.63
4.63*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.53vs his norm —
356 / 200 TBF
ERA4.08
4.08*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.02vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
86 / 200 IP
Strikeout %15.7%
norm15.7%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−6.3%vs his norm −3.3% ▼
356 / 70 TBF
Walk %7.3%
norm7.3%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.7%vs his norm −1.4% ▼
356 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.240
.240*
lg avg .295 ▼−.055vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
270 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %10.4%
10.4%*
lg avg 11.0% ▼−0.6%vs his norm —
356 / 60 TBF
Chase %30.2%
30.2%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+1.7%vs his norm —
356 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo94.5 mph
94.5 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+0.5 mphvs his norm —
1300 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 15.7%→16.9%signal0 K — K% 15.7% (signal) lifted to career ~19.0% → projected 16.9% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 4.63signal4.30 ERA — xERA 4.63 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 3.70 at 23 IP.
BB% 7.3% + contactsignal1.30 WHIP — a 7% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.276 gives a 1.34 skill WHIP, blended 65…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (setup)0-0 SV — role: setup, in the save mix only situationally.
rosterdrop4.30 ERA, 1.30 WHIP

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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