week 25
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekSELL-HIGH
Daniel Lynch IV
data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
Sell High luck-free xERA 4.03 is 0.52 above the ERA, regression coming — BABIP-against 0.240 suppressed and unstable, flattering the ERA; sell into the hype before regression.high 0.86 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 6ERA 3.91WHIP 1.30W 0–0SV 0–0
Lynch is a sell-high — the ERA rests on a low BABIP
Surface ERA flattered by an unsustainably low BABIP-against; xERA says regression. Sell high.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %16.8%—−2.2% ▼vs his ~19.0% career norm
- Walk %7.3%—−1.4% ▼vs his ~8.7% career norm
Drivers
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.240 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 4.03 is 0.52 above the ERA — regression coming
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed36.1%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−3.9%vs his norm —
205 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed5.9%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−2.1%vs his norm —
205 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.310
lg avg .315 ▼−.005vs his norm —
274 / 200 TBF
xERA4.03
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.07vs his norm —
274 / 200 TBF
ERA3.51
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.59vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
66.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %16.8%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−5.2%vs his norm −2.2% ▼
274 / 70 TBF
Walk %7.3%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.7%vs his norm −1.4% ▼
274 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.240
lg avg .295 ▼−.055vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
205 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %11.1%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+0.1%vs his norm —
274 / 60 TBF
Chase %29.7%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+1.2%vs his norm —
274 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo94.6 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+0.6 mphvs his norm —
993 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 16.8%→17.7%signal6 K — K% 16.8% (signal) lifted to career ~19.0% → projected 17.7% over ~5 remaining IP.
xERA 4.03signal3.91 ERA — xERA 4.03 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 3.70 at 23 IP.
BB% 7.3% + contactsignal1.30 WHIP — a 7% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.281 gives a 1.34 skill WHIP, blended 65…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (setup)0-0 SV — role: setup, in the save mix only situationally.
rosterdrop3.91 ERA, 1.30 WHIP
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.