week 10
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekSELL-HIGH
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Daniel Lynch IV
data as of June 3, 2026·week 10
Lynch is a sell-high — ERA built on BABIP luck.
His ERA sits at 1.93, but the number keeping it low is his BABIP-against: .241, more than 50 points below the league average of .295. BABIP-against needs around 800 balls in play to be reliable, and he has 59 — that gap is luck, not skill. Strip out the noise and his expected ERA is 2.80, nearly a full run higher than what the box score shows. He has struck out 28.1% of batters, which is above average, and held hitters to a 33.9% hard-hit rate, so there is some skill underneath. But the ERA is being flattered by an unsustainable BABIP, and the sample is still small. Regression is coming. Sell high.
Sell High
high0.90
Drivers
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.241 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 2.80 is 0.87 above the ERA — regression coming
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed33.9%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−6.1%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL59 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed6.8%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.2%too early to trust
NOISE59 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.267
lg avg .315 ▼−.048too early to trust
NOISE96 / 200 TBF
xERA2.80
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.30too early to trust
NOISE96 / 200 TBF
ERA1.93
lg avg 4.10 ▼−2.17too early to trust
NOISE23.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %28.1%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+6.1%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL96 / 70 TBF
Walk %8.3%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.3%too early to trust
NOISE96 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.241
lg avg .295 ▼−.054too early to trust
NOISE59 / 800 BIP