MLB Daily DeltaWeek 31 · October 26, 2026
Engraved portrait of Seth Lugo
week 31
this weekSELL
last weekSELL

Seth Lugo

KC·P
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
Sell stable xERA 5.09 +0.99 vs league with no luck excuse; move on.high 0.85
ROSK 0ERA 4.74WHIP 1.44W 0–0SV 0

Lugo is a sell — expected ERA sits a run above league

His expected ERA is 5.09, nearly a full run above the league average of 4.10, and it is moving in the wrong direction: the number has climbed across this sample. The sample is large enough to trust — 751 batters faced, well past the 200 needed for his expected ERA to be reliable. His expected wOBA allowed of .343 sits 28 points above the league mark, so the damage is in the contact he allows, not in one bad stretch. The strikeout rate is the drag: 17.8% against a league average of 22.0%, with a swinging-strike rate of 8.6% well under league. He does not miss enough bats to keep runs off the board. There is no luck story to fall back on here. Sell. 0 K and a 4.74 ERA is streaming-only — cut him rather than eat that tax on your staff.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %17.8%—−5.3% ▼vs his ~23.1% career norm
  • Walk %7.2%—+0.4% ▲vs his ~6.8% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALstable xERA 5.09 +0.99 vs league with no luck excuse
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed42.8%
42.8%*
lg avg 40.0% ▲+2.8%vs his norm —
554 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed7.9%
7.9%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.1%vs his norm —
554 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.343
.343*
lg avg .315 ▲+.028vs his norm —
751 / 200 TBF
xERA5.09
5.09*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.99vs his norm —
751 / 200 TBF
ERA5.17
5.17*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+1.07vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
172.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %17.8%
norm17.8%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−4.2%vs his norm −5.3% ▼
751 / 70 TBF
Walk %7.2%
norm7.2%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.8%vs his norm +0.4% ▲
751 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.335
.335*
lg avg .295 ▲+.040vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
554 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %8.6%
8.6%*
lg avg 11.0% ▼−2.4%vs his norm —
751 / 60 TBF
Chase %25.3%
25.3%*
lg avg 28.5% ▼−3.2%vs his norm —
751 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo91.7 mph
91.7 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−2.3 mphvs his norm —
2858 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 17.8%→18.9%signal0 K — K% 17.8% (signal) lifted to career ~23.1% → projected 18.9% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 5.09signal4.74 ERA — xERA 5.09 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 4.10 at 71 IP.
BB% 7.2% + contactsignal1.44 WHIP — a 7% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.323 gives a 1.51 skill WHIP, blended 65…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop0 K ROS, 4.74 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

Tweet
Compare with

Comparisons

head-to-head matchups