MLB Daily DeltaWeek 10 · June 3, 2026
Engraved portrait of Martín Pérez
week 10
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekSELL-HIGH
————————

Martín Pérez

ATL·P
data as of June 3, 2026·week 10

Pérez is a sell-high — his ERA is a BABIP mirage.

Surface ERA flattered by an unsustainably low BABIP-against; xERA says regression. Sell high.

Sell High
high0.95

Drivers

  • babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.228 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
  • xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 4.31 is 1.52 above the ERA — regression coming
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed42.0%
42.0%
lg avg 40.0% ▲+2.0%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL143 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed7.7%
7.7%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.3%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL143 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.327
.327
lg avg .315 ▲+.012trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL205 / 200 TBF
xERA4.31
4.31
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.21trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL205 / 200 TBF
ERA2.79
2.79
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.31too early to trust
NOISE51.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %20.5%
20.5%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−1.5%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL205 / 70 TBF
Walk %8.8%
8.8%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.8%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL205 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.228
.228
lg avg .295 ▼−.067too early to trust
NOISE143 / 800 BIP