week 31
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekSELL-HIGH
Martín Pérez
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
Sell High luck-free xERA 4.51 is 1.47 above the ERA, regression coming — BABIP-against 0.254 suppressed and unstable, flattering the ERA; sell into the hype before regression.high 0.95 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 0ERA 4.37WHIP 1.39W 0–0SV 0
Pérez is a sell-high — his ERA is running on BABIP luck
Surface ERA flattered by an unsustainably low BABIP-against; xERA says regression. Sell high.
VS His Norm
- Walk %10.4%—+2.0% ▲vs his ~8.4% career norm
- Strikeout %17.1%—+0.7% ▲vs his ~16.4% career norm
Drivers
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.254 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 4.51 is 1.47 above the ERA — regression coming
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed35.0%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−5.0%vs his norm —
429 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed4.7%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−3.3%vs his norm —
429 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.325
lg avg .315 ▲+.010vs his norm —
596 / 200 TBF
xERA4.51
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.41vs his norm —
596 / 200 TBF
ERA3.04
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.06vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
142 / 200 IP
Strikeout %17.1%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−4.9%vs his norm +0.7% ▲
596 / 70 TBF
Walk %10.4%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+2.4%vs his norm +2.0% ▲
596 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.254
lg avg .295 ▼−.041vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
429 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %9.1%
lg avg 11.0% ▼−1.9%vs his norm —
596 / 60 TBF
Chase %27.4%
lg avg 28.5% ▼−1.1%vs his norm —
596 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo89.9 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−4.1 mphvs his norm —
2244 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 17.1%→16.9%signal0 K — K% 17.1% (signal) tempered to career ~16.4% → projected 16.9% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 4.51signal4.37 ERA — xERA 4.51 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 4.10 at 52 IP.
BB% 10.4% + contactsignal1.39 WHIP — a 10% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.273 gives a 1.44 skill WHIP, blended 6…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop0 K ROS, 4.37 ERA
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.