week 27
this weekHOLD
last week—
JP Sears
data as of September 30, 2026·week 27
Hold · wait & see skill near league average (5.16); hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.50 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 0ERA 4.10WHIP 1.30W 0–0SV 0
Sears is a hold — league-average skill, nothing unstable driving it.
ROS projects K 5 YTD → 0 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %17.5%—−2.2% ▼vs his ~19.7% career norm
Drivers
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (5.16)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed45.2%
lg avg 40.0% ▲+5.2%vs his norm —
104 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed8.7%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.7%vs his norm —
104 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.345
lg avg .315 ▲+.030vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is above the ~.315 league average — expect it to fall.
143 / 200 TBF
xERA5.16
lg avg 4.10 ▲+1.06vs his norm —xERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
143 / 200 TBF
ERA4.68
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.58vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
32.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %17.5%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−4.5%vs his norm −2.2% ▼
143 / 70 TBF
Walk %7.7%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.3%vs his norm +0.9% ▲Walk % is above his ~6.8% norm — expect it to fall.
143 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.276
lg avg .295 ▼−.019vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
104 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %9.8%
lg avg 11.0% ▼−1.2%vs his norm —
143 / 60 TBF
Chase %27.2%
lg avg 28.5% ▼−1.3%vs his norm —
143 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo93.0 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−1.0 mphvs his norm —
529 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 17.5%→18.8%signal0 K — K% 17.5% (signal) lifted to career ~19.7% → projected 18.8% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 5.16noise4.10 ERA — xERA 5.16 (noise) blended 0% skill / 100% league 4.10 at 6 IP.
BB% 7.7% + contactnoise1.30 WHIP — a 8% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.292 gives a 1.40 skill WHIP, blended 0%…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop0 K ROS, 4.10 ERA
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.