MLB Daily DeltaWeek 25 · September 10, 2026
Engraved portrait of Ryan Yarbrough
week 25
this weekBUY
last weekHOLD

Ryan Yarbrough

NYY·P
data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
flipped from HOLD on September 10, 2026
Buy stable xERA 3.44, 0.66 below league, production is earned; add now.high 0.80
ROSK 4ERA 3.44WHIP 1.38W 0–0SV 0–1

Yarbrough is a buy — the weak contact is real and earned.

He is holding hitters to a 25.3% hard-hit rate against a league average of 40.0%, and his barrel rate allowed is 3.7% against a league mark of 8.0% — both past the point where contact quality becomes reliable. That is the engine behind his expected ERA of 3.44, .66 of a run below the league average of 4.10, and he has allowed enough batted balls for that number to be trusted. The xERA has stepped down across this sample, not up, so the skill is holding. The caveats are real: he strikes out only 17.3% of batters, walks 9.3%, and sits at 87.4 mph with the fastball. He is not missing bats and he is not overpowering anyone. He does not have to — he is getting weak contact instead. Buy. Just 4 K with a 3.44 ERA and 1.38 WHIP makes him a deep-league asset to add now, not a shallow must-start.

VS His Norm

  • Walk %9.3%—+3.6% ▲vs his ~5.7% career norm
  • Strikeout %17.3%—−1.5% ▼vs his ~18.8% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALstable xERA 3.44, 0.66 below league — production is earned
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed25.3%
believable since May 2625.3%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−14.7%vs his norm —
162 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed3.7%
3.7%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−4.3%vs his norm —
162 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.288
.288*
lg avg .315 ▼−.027vs his norm —
226 / 200 TBF
xERA3.44
3.44*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.66vs his norm —
226 / 200 TBF
ERA3.91
3.91*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.19vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
53 / 200 IP
Strikeout %17.3%
norm17.3%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−4.7%vs his norm −1.5% ▼
226 / 70 TBF
Walk %9.3%
norm9.3%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+1.3%vs his norm +3.6% ▲
226 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.261
.261*
lg avg .295 ▼−.034vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
162 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %11.1%
11.1%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+0.1%vs his norm —
226 / 60 TBF
Chase %27.5%
27.5%*
lg avg 28.5% ▼−1.0%vs his norm —
226 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo87.4 mph
87.4 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−6.6 mphvs his norm —
878 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 17.3%→18.0%signal4 K — K% 17.3% (signal) lifted to career ~18.8% → projected 18.0% over ~6 remaining IP.
xERA 3.44signal3.44 ERA — regresses up toward xERA 3.44 (signal): elite skill, but overperforming even…
BB% 9.3% + contactsignal1.38 WHIP — a 9% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.288 gives a 1.45 skill WHIP, blended 65…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (middle)0-1 SV — role: middle, in the save mix only situationally.
rosterdeep3.44 ERA, 1.38 WHIP

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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