week 17
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD
Ryan Yarbrough
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
Hold · wait & see skill near league average (3.12); hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.50 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 19ERA 3.70WHIP 1.24W 0–0SV 1–2
Yarbrough is a hold — league average, nothing to buy or sell.
ROS projects K 14 YTD → 19 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %17.0%—−1.8% ▼vs his ~18.8% career norm
Drivers
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (3.12)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed23.9%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−16.1%vs his norm —
113 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed3.5%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−4.5%vs his norm —
113 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.276
lg avg .315 ▼−.039vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
159 / 200 TBF
xERA3.12
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.98vs his norm —xERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
159 / 200 TBF
ERA4.13
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.03vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
37 / 200 IP
Strikeout %17.0%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−5.0%vs his norm −1.8% ▼
159 / 70 TBF
Walk %10.1%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+2.1%vs his norm +4.4% ▲Walk % is above his ~5.7% norm — expect it to fall.
159 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.239
lg avg .295 ▼−.056vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
113 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %11.4%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+0.4%vs his norm —
159 / 60 TBF
Chase %27.0%
lg avg 28.5% ▼−1.5%vs his norm —
159 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo87.4 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−6.6 mphvs his norm —
613 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 17.0%→18.0%signal19 K — K% 17.0% (signal) lifted to career ~18.8% → projected 18.0% over ~25 remaining IP.
xERA 3.12noise3.70 ERA — xERA 3.12 (noise) blended 0% skill / 100% league 3.70 at 20 IP.
BB% 10.1% + contactnoise1.24 WHIP — a 10% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.287 gives a 1.49 skill WHIP, blended 0…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (middle)1-2 SV — role: middle, in the save mix only situationally.
rosterdeep3.70 ERA, 1.24 WHIP
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.