MLB Daily DeltaWeek 31 · October 26, 2026
Engraved portrait of Ryan Yarbrough
week 31
this weekBUY
last weekHOLD

Ryan Yarbrough

NYY·P
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
flipped from HOLD on October 26, 2026
Buy stable xERA 3.39, 0.71 below league, production is earned; add now.high 0.81
ROSK 0ERA 3.39WHIP 1.35W 0–0SV 0–0

Yarbrough is a buy — soft contact is carrying the run prevention

His expected ERA is 3.39, .71 below the league average of 4.10, and he has faced enough batters — 268 — for that number to be reliable. The skill underneath it is contact suppression: hitters are barreling him at 3.6% against a league rate of 8.0%, and his hard-hit rate allowed is 25.0% against 40.0%, both on 192 batted balls, well past the point where contact quality becomes trustworthy. His xwOBA allowed of .285 sits .030 under league, and that expected ERA has been stepping down as the sample has grown. He is not blowing anyone away — 18.3% strikeouts, an 87.3 mph fastball — but he does not need to. The contact numbers are the arsenal. Buy. Deep-league asset: 3.39 ERA and 1.35 WHIP with zero strikeouts is a ratio play — add him now for the ballpark, not the punchouts.

VS His Norm

  • Walk %8.6%—+2.9% ▲vs his ~5.7% career norm
  • Strikeout %18.3%—−0.5% ▼vs his ~18.8% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALstable xERA 3.39, 0.71 below league — production is earned
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed25.0%
believable since May 2625.0%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−15.0%vs his norm —
192 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed3.6%
3.6%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−4.4%vs his norm —
192 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.285
.285*
lg avg .315 ▼−.030vs his norm —
268 / 200 TBF
xERA3.39
3.39*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.71vs his norm —
268 / 200 TBF
ERA3.69
3.69*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.41vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
63.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %18.3%
norm18.3%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−3.7%vs his norm −0.5% ▼
268 / 70 TBF
Walk %8.6%
norm8.6%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.6%vs his norm +2.9% ▲
268 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.273
.273*
lg avg .295 ▼−.022vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
192 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %12.0%
12.0%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+1.0%vs his norm —
268 / 60 TBF
Chase %28.0%
28.0%*
lg avg 28.5% ▼−0.5%vs his norm —
268 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo87.3 mph
87.3 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−6.7 mphvs his norm —
1061 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 18.3%→18.5%signal0 K — K% 18.3% (signal) held to career ~18.8% → projected 18.5% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 3.39signal3.39 ERA — regresses up toward xERA 3.39 (signal): elite skill, but overperforming even…
BB% 8.6% + contactsignal1.35 WHIP — a 9% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.290 gives a 1.41 skill WHIP, blended 65…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (middle)0-0 SV — role: middle, in the save mix only situationally.
rosterdeep3.39 ERA, 1.35 WHIP

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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