MLB Daily DeltaWeek 31 · October 26, 2026
Engraved portrait of Connor Prielipp
week 31
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD

Connor Prielipp

MIN·P
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
Hold · steady skill near league average (3.95); hold steady — skill tracks near league, no edge either way.med 0.60
ROSK 0ERA 3.95WHIP 1.32W 0–0SV 0

Prielipp is a hold — league-average skill with a steady sample.

His expected ERA is 3.95, a hair under the league average of 4.10, and he has faced enough batters for that number to be reliable. The rest of the profile sits in the same neighborhood. He strikes out 23.9% of batters and walks 8.2%, both within a point or so of league average, and his swinging-strike rate of 11.3% is close to the league mark. His expected wOBA allowed of .306 is just below league average, and his barrel rate allowed of 6.5% is actually better than the 8.0% league figure. His expected ERA has been stepping down across the sample, but it has not moved far enough to call this a skill jump. There is no luck stat distorting the line in either direction. Hold.

VS His Norm

  • Walk %8.2%—−2.1% ▼vs his ~10.3% career norm
  • Strikeout %23.9%—−0.1% ▼vs his ~24.0% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALskill near league average (3.95)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed41.1%
41.1%*
lg avg 40.0% ▲+1.1%vs his norm —
355 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed6.5%
6.5%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.5%vs his norm —
355 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.306
believable since Jun 14.306*
lg avg .315 ▼−.009vs his norm —
535 / 200 TBF
xERA3.95
3.95*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.15vs his norm —
535 / 200 TBF
ERA4.87
4.87*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.77vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
125.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %23.9%
norm23.9%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+1.9%vs his norm −0.1% ▼
535 / 70 TBF
Walk %8.2%
norm8.2%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.2%vs his norm −2.1% ▼
535 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.308
.308*
lg avg .295 ▲+.013vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
355 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %11.3%
11.3%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+0.3%vs his norm —
535 / 60 TBF
Chase %30.4%
30.4%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+1.9%vs his norm —
535 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo95.6 mph
95.6 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+1.6 mphvs his norm —
2067 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 23.9%→23.9%signal0 K — K% 23.9% (signal) held to career ~24.0% → projected 23.9% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 3.95signal3.95 ERA — regresses up toward xERA 3.95 (signal): elite skill, but overperforming even…
BB% 8.2% + contactsignal1.32 WHIP — a 8% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.301 gives a 1.34 skill WHIP, blended 65…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop0 K ROS, 3.95 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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