MLB Daily DeltaWeek 25 · September 10, 2026
Engraved portrait of Connor Prielipp
week 25
this weekBUY-LOW
last weekHOLD

Connor Prielipp

MIN·P
data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
flipped from HOLD on September 10, 2026
Buy Low luck-free xERA 4.11 is right around league, a usable arm the ERA is hiding; fastball velocity stable and above league, the arm is fine — BABIP-against 0.324 elevated and unstable, bloating the ERA; buy the player, not the number.high 0.90
ROSK 12ERA 4.11WHIP 1.34W 0–0SV 0

Prielipp is a buy-low — the ERA is BABIP noise, the arm is fine

His ERA is 5.25, and that number is lying about the pitcher. His BABIP-against is .324, 29 points above the league average of .295, and BABIP-against needs around 800 balls in play to be believable. He has 304 — that gap is luck, not command. Strip the noise out and his expected wOBA allowed is .313, right at the league average of .315, with 467 batters faced, well past the point where that number is stable. The stuff checks out underneath: 95.6 mph fastball velocity, above the 94.0 league average and climbing, a 24.8% strikeout rate above league, and hard-hit allowed and barrel allowed both right around the league middle. The arm is real. The surface is not. Buy low. 12 K and a 4.11 ERA is deep-league streaming-only; the buy-low window stays open, but not as a roster-anywhere add.

VS His Norm

  • Walk %8.6%—−1.7% ▼vs his ~10.3% career norm
  • Strikeout %24.8%—+0.8% ▲vs his ~24.0% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 4.11 is right around league — a usable arm the ERA is hiding
  • babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.324 elevated and unstable — bloating the ERA
  • p_fastball_veloSIGNALfastball velocity stable and above league — the arm is fine
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed42.1%
42.1%*
lg avg 40.0% ▲+2.1%vs his norm —
304 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed7.2%
7.2%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.8%vs his norm —
304 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.313
believable since Jun 14.313*
lg avg .315 ▼−.002vs his norm —
467 / 200 TBF
xERA4.11
4.11*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.01vs his norm —
467 / 200 TBF
ERA5.25
5.25*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+1.15vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
108 / 200 IP
Strikeout %24.8%
norm24.8%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+2.8%vs his norm +0.8% ▲
467 / 70 TBF
Walk %8.6%
norm8.6%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.6%vs his norm −1.7% ▼
467 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.324
.324*
lg avg .295 ▲+.029vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
304 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %11.5%
11.5%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+0.5%vs his norm —
467 / 60 TBF
Chase %30.1%
30.1%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+1.6%vs his norm —
467 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo95.6 mph
95.6 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+1.6 mphvs his norm —
1821 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 24.8%→24.6%signal12 K — K% 24.8% (signal) tempered to career ~24.0% → projected 24.6% over ~11 remaining…
xERA 4.11signal4.11 ERA — xERA 4.11 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 4.10 at 33 IP.
BB% 8.6% + contactsignal1.34 WHIP — a 9% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.306 gives a 1.36 skill WHIP, blended 65…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop12 K ROS, 4.11 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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