MLB Daily DeltaWeek 17 · July 18, 2026
Engraved portrait of Connor Prielipp
week 17
this weekBUY-LOW
last weekHOLD

Connor Prielipp

MIN·P
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
ON THE 15-DAY IL
flipped from HOLD
Buy Low luck-free xERA 4.22 is right around league, a usable arm the ERA is hiding; fastball velocity stable and above league, the arm is fine — BABIP-against 0.320 elevated and unstable, bloating the ERA; buy the player, not the number.high 0.83
ROSK 51ERA 4.18WHIP 1.33W 1–2SV 0

Prielipp is a buy-low — his ERA is noise, not skill.

His ERA is 5.00, but the real story is underneath. His BABIP-against is .320, 25 points above league average, and that number needs around 800 balls in play to be reliable — he has 192. That gap is luck, not a sign of poor pitching. His expected ERA is 4.22, right around league average and stable across nearly 300 batters faced. His strikeout rate is 24.1%, above league, his walk rate is 8.5%, near league, and his fastball velocity has been stepping up across the sample, now at 95.4 mph — above the league mark. The surface says he is struggling; the underlying metrics say he is a usable arm. Buy low. 51 K in 51 IP with a 4.18 ERA makes him a streaming-only arm despite the buy-low call.

VS His Norm

  • Walk %8.5%—−1.8% ▼vs his ~10.3% career norm
  • Strikeout %24.1%—+0.1% ▲vs his ~24.0% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 4.22 is right around league — a usable arm the ERA is hiding
  • babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.320 elevated and unstable — bloating the ERA
  • p_fastball_veloSIGNALfastball velocity stable and above league — the arm is fine
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed39.6%
39.6%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−0.4%vs his norm —
192 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed9.4%
9.4%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+1.4%vs his norm —
192 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.318
.318*
lg avg .315 ▲+.003vs his norm —
294 / 200 TBF
xERA4.22
4.22*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.12vs his norm —
294 / 200 TBF
ERA5.00
5.00*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.90vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
66.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %24.1%
norm24.1%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+2.1%vs his norm +0.1% ▲
294 / 70 TBF
Walk %8.5%
norm8.5%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.5%vs his norm −1.8% ▼
294 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.320
.320*
lg avg .295 ▲+.025vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
192 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %10.6%
10.6%*
lg avg 11.0% ▼−0.4%vs his norm —
294 / 60 TBF
Chase %30.8%
30.8%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+2.3%vs his norm —
294 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo95.4 mph
95.4 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+1.4 mphvs his norm —
1156 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 24.1%→24.0%signal51 K — K% 24.1% (signal) tempered to career ~24.0% → projected 24.0% over ~49 remaining…
xERA 4.22signal4.18 ERA — xERA 4.22 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 4.10 at 33 IP.
BB% 8.5% + contactsignal1.33 WHIP — a 8% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.301 gives a 1.35 skill WHIP, blended 65…
run support + role1-2 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop51 K ROS, 4.18 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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