Rest of Season Projection
ConnorCategoryTroy
81K ←28
4.07ERA ←4.10
1.35WHIP →1.30
1–3W →4–8
0SV0
Current Season
ConnorCategoryTroy
35K ←4
5.13ERA →1.42
1.35WHIP →0.95
1W1
0SV0
What Each Player's System Trusts
Connor Prielipp
- xeraSIGNALskill near league average (4.07)
Troy Melton
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.197 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 4.33 is 1.52 above the ERA — regression coming
- p_k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 14% is stable and well below league — limits the ceiling
Connor Prielipp: 81 K / 4.07 ERA. Troy Melton: 28 K / 4.10 ERA. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).