Rest of Season Projection
BryceCategoryTroy
60K ←28
4.08ERA4.10
1.30WHIP1.30
2–5W →4–8
0SV0
Current Season
BryceCategoryTroy
20K ←4
1.71ERA →1.42
0.86WHIP ←0.95
1W1
0SV0
What Each Player's System Trusts
Bryce Miller
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.203 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 2.34 is 0.80 above the ERA — regression coming
Troy Melton
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.197 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 4.33 is 1.52 above the ERA — regression coming
- p_k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 14% is stable and well below league — limits the ceiling
Bryce Miller: 60 K / 4.08 ERA. Troy Melton: 28 K / 4.10 ERA. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).