Rest of Season Projection
MitchCategoryTroy
80K ←28
4.66ERA →4.10
1.38WHIP →1.30
5–10W ←4–8
0SV0
Current Season
MitchCategoryTroy
51K ←4
4.35ERA →1.42
1.17WHIP →0.95
5W ←1
0SV0
What Each Player's System Trusts
Mitch Keller
- xeraSIGNALstable xERA 4.96 +0.86 vs league with no luck excuse
Troy Melton
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.197 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 4.31 is 1.50 above the ERA — regression coming
- p_k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 14% is stable and well below league — limits the ceiling
Mitch Keller: 80 K / 4.66 ERA. Troy Melton: 28 K / 4.10 ERA. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).