Rest of Season Projection
LuisCategoryTroy
98K ←28
4.11ERA4.10
1.41WHIP →1.30
2–4W →4–8
0SV0
Current Season
LuisCategoryTroy
65K ←4
4.16ERA →1.42
1.47WHIP →0.95
2W ←1
0SV0
What Each Player's System Trusts
Luis Severino
- xeraSIGNALskill near league average (4.11)
Troy Melton
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.197 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 4.31 is 1.50 above the ERA — regression coming
- p_k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 14% is stable and well below league — limits the ceiling
Luis Severino: 99 K / 4.10 ERA. Troy Melton: 29 K / 4.10 ERA. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).