Rest of Season Projection
JRCategoryTroy
65K ←28
4.13ERA →4.10
1.32WHIP →1.30
2–4W →4–8
0SV0
Current Season
JRCategoryTroy
21K ←4
4.56ERA →1.42
1.44WHIP →0.95
1W1
0SV0
What Each Player's System Trusts
JR Ritchie
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (4.71)
Troy Melton
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.197 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 4.31 is 1.50 above the ERA — regression coming
- p_k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 14% is stable and well below league — limits the ceiling
JR Ritchie: 65 K / 4.13 ERA. Troy Melton: 28 K / 4.10 ERA. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).