Rest of Season Projection
RhettCategoryTroy
67K ←35
4.29ERA →4.10
1.35WHIP →1.30
4–9W4–9
0SV0
Current Season
RhettCategoryTroy
31K ←4
5.01ERA →1.42
1.45WHIP →0.95
3W ←1
0SV0
What Each Player's System Trusts
Rhett Lowder
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (5.07)
Troy Melton
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.175 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 4.47 is 2.73 above the ERA — regression coming
- p_k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 11% is stable and well below league — limits the ceiling
Rhett Lowder: 67 K / 4.29 ERA. Troy Melton: 35 K / 4.10 ERA. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).