Rest of Season Projection
MikeCategoryTroy
97K ←36
4.39ERA →4.10
1.40WHIP →1.30
3–7W →4–9
0SV0
Current Season
MikeCategoryTroy
54K ←4
5.40ERA →1.42
1.45WHIP →0.95
3W ←1
0SV0
What Each Player's System Trusts
Mike Burrows
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.322 elevated and unstable — bloating the ERA
Troy Melton
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.175 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 4.45 is 2.71 above the ERA — regression coming
- p_k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 11% is stable and well below league — limits the ceiling
Mike Burrows: 97 K / 4.39 ERA. Troy Melton: 36 K / 4.10 ERA. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).