Rest of Season Projection
CarmenCategoryTroy
87K ←36
4.53ERA →4.10
1.39WHIP →1.30
5–10W ←4–9
0SV0
Current Season
CarmenCategoryTroy
46K ←4
3.76ERA →1.42
1.42WHIP →0.95
4W ←1
0SV0
What Each Player's System Trusts
Carmen Mlodzinski
- xeraSIGNALstable xERA 4.76 +0.66 vs league with no luck excuse
Troy Melton
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.175 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 4.45 is 2.71 above the ERA — regression coming
- p_k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 11% is stable and well below league — limits the ceiling
Carmen Mlodzinski: 87 K / 4.53 ERA. Troy Melton: 36 K / 4.10 ERA. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).