Rest of Season Projection
ShaneCategoryTroy
101K ←36
4.17ERA →4.10
1.39WHIP →1.30
2–5W →4–9
0SV0
Current Season
ShaneCategoryTroy
57K ←4
4.48ERA →1.42
1.43WHIP →0.95
2W ←1
0SV0
What Each Player's System Trusts
Shane Baz
- xeraSIGNALskill near league average (4.21)
Troy Melton
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.175 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 4.45 is 2.71 above the ERA — regression coming
- p_k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 11% is stable and well below league — limits the ceiling
Shane Baz: 101 K / 4.17 ERA. Troy Melton: 36 K / 4.10 ERA. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).