Rest of Season Projection
ColinCategoryTroy
84K ←36
4.92ERA →4.10
1.36WHIP →1.30
6–12W ←4–9
0SV0
Current Season
ColinCategoryTroy
49K ←4
4.70ERA →1.42
1.37WHIP →0.95
5W ←1
1SV ←0
What Each Player's System Trusts
Colin Rea
- xeraSIGNALstable xERA 5.36 +1.26 vs league with no luck excuse
Troy Melton
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.175 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 4.45 is 2.71 above the ERA — regression coming
- p_k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 11% is stable and well below league — limits the ceiling
Colin Rea: 84 K / 4.92 ERA. Troy Melton: 36 K / 4.10 ERA. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).