Rest of Season Projection
JoeyCategoryTroy
97K ←36
4.19ERA →4.10
1.47WHIP →1.30
4–10W ←4–9
0SV0
Current Season
JoeyCategoryTroy
52K ←4
3.57ERA →1.42
1.40WHIP →0.95
4W ←1
0SV0
What Each Player's System Trusts
Joey Cantillo
- xeraSIGNALskill near league average (4.24)
Troy Melton
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.175 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 4.45 is 2.71 above the ERA — regression coming
- p_k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 11% is stable and well below league — limits the ceiling
Joey Cantillo: 97 K / 4.19 ERA. Troy Melton: 36 K / 4.10 ERA. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).