week 17
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD
Joey Cantillo
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
Hold · leans buy skill near league average (3.88); a hold that leans buy — skill sits a hair above league, worth watching.med 0.60 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 50ERA 3.88WHIP 1.41W 2–5SV 0
Cantillo is a hold — league average, stable, nothing pushing either way.
ROS projects K 52 YTD → 50 ROS, ERA 3.57 YTD → 3.88 ROS, WHIP 1.40 YTD → 1.41 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %24.4%—−0.8% ▼vs his ~25.2% career norm
- Walk %11.4%—+0.5% ▲vs his ~10.9% career norm
Drivers
- xeraSIGNALskill near league average (3.88)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed36.5%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−3.5%vs his norm —
274 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed7.7%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.3%vs his norm —
274 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.306
lg avg .315 ▼−.009vs his norm —
430 / 200 TBF
xERA3.88
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.22vs his norm —
430 / 200 TBF
ERA3.56
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.54vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
101 / 200 IP
Strikeout %24.4%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+2.4%vs his norm −0.8% ▼
430 / 70 TBF
Walk %11.4%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+3.4%vs his norm +0.5% ▲
430 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.308
lg avg .295 ▲+.013vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
274 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %13.5%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+2.5%vs his norm —
430 / 60 TBF
Chase %29.3%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+0.8%vs his norm —
430 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo92.0 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−2.0 mphvs his norm —
1734 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 24.4%→24.7%signal50 K — K% 24.4% (signal) held to career ~25.2% → projected 24.7% over ~55 remaining IP.
xERA 3.88signal3.88 ERA — regresses up toward xERA 3.88 (signal): elite skill, but overperforming even…
BB% 11.4% + contactsignal1.41 WHIP — a 11% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.299 gives a 1.46 skill WHIP, blended 6…
run support + role2-5 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop50 K ROS, 3.88 ERA
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.