MLB Daily DeltaWeek 31 · October 26, 2026
Engraved portrait of Joey Cantillo
week 31
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD

Joey Cantillo

CLE·P
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
Hold · steady skill near league average (4.01); hold steady — skill tracks near league, no edge either way.med 0.60
ROSK 0ERA 4.01WHIP 1.42W 0–0SV 0

Cantillo is a hold — league-average skill and a walking problem

His expected ERA is 4.01, tracking just under the league average of 4.10 across 687 batters faced, and that sample is well past the point where the number becomes reliable. The contact quality allowed backs it up: a .308 expected wOBA allowed matches league, 39.4% hard-hit allowed sits right at the 40.0% average, and his barrel rate allowed is 7.5% against 8.0%. There is no luck story pulling the expected line one way or the other. The one number that keeps this from being a buy is his walk rate — 11.8% against a league average of 8.0%, and it is past the point where walk rate settles. The strikeouts, 24.9%, do not buy back enough free passes to move him past average. The xERA is stepping down as the sample grows, which is worth watching, but it has not moved far enough yet. Hold. 0 K / 4.01 ERA / 1.42 WHIP is a drop-tier drag — hold only because nothing better is coming; deep-league filler at best.

VS His Norm

  • Walk %11.8%—+0.9% ▲vs his ~10.9% career norm
  • Strikeout %24.9%—−0.3% ▼vs his ~25.2% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALskill near league average (4.01)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed39.4%
39.4%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−0.6%vs his norm —
429 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed7.5%
7.5%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.5%vs his norm —
429 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.308
.308*
lg avg .315 ▼−.007vs his norm —
687 / 200 TBF
xERA4.01
4.01*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.09vs his norm —
687 / 200 TBF
ERA3.62
3.62*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.48vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
159 / 200 IP
Strikeout %24.9%
norm24.9%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+2.9%vs his norm −0.3% ▼
687 / 70 TBF
Walk %11.8%
norm11.8%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+3.8%vs his norm +0.9% ▲
687 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.312
.312*
lg avg .295 ▲+.017vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
429 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %12.9%
12.9%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+1.9%vs his norm —
687 / 60 TBF
Chase %27.5%
27.5%*
lg avg 28.5% ▼−1.0%vs his norm —
687 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo92.2 mph
92.2 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−1.8 mphvs his norm —
2748 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 24.9%→25.0%signal0 K — K% 24.9% (signal) held to career ~25.2% → projected 25.0% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 4.01signal4.01 ERA — regresses up toward xERA 4.01 (signal): elite skill, but overperforming even…
BB% 11.8% + contactsignal1.42 WHIP — a 12% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.304 gives a 1.49 skill WHIP, blended 6…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop0 K ROS, 4.01 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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