Rest of Season Projection
RyneCategoryTroy
83K ←35
4.57ERA →4.10
1.28WHIP ←1.30
2–4W →4–9
0SV0
Current Season
RyneCategoryTroy
52K ←4
4.82ERA →1.42
1.19WHIP →0.95
2W ←1
0SV0
What Each Player's System Trusts
Ryne Nelson
- xeraSIGNALstable xERA 4.83 +0.73 vs league with no luck excuse
Troy Melton
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.175 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 4.45 is 2.71 above the ERA — regression coming
- p_k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 11% is stable and well below league — limits the ceiling
Ryne Nelson: 83 K / 4.57 ERA. Troy Melton: 35 K / 4.10 ERA. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).