Rest of Season Projection
MartínCategoryTroy
68K ←35
4.26ERA →4.10
1.33WHIP →1.30
3–8W →4–9
0SV0
Current Season
MartínCategoryTroy
42K ←4
2.79ERA →1.42
1.06WHIP →0.95
3W ←1
0SV0
What Each Player's System Trusts
Martín Pérez
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.228 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 4.34 is 1.55 above the ERA — regression coming
Troy Melton
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.175 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 4.45 is 2.71 above the ERA — regression coming
- p_k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 11% is stable and well below league — limits the ceiling
Martín Pérez: 68 K / 4.26 ERA. Troy Melton: 35 K / 4.10 ERA. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).