MLB Daily DeltaWeek 31 · October 26, 2026
week 31
this weekSELL
last weekSELL

Rhett Lowder

CIN·P
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
Sell stable xERA 5.44 +1.34 vs league with no luck excuse; move on.high 0.90
ROSK 0ERA 4.97WHIP 1.45W 0–0SV 0

Lowder is a sell — the xERA says this is who he is

His expected ERA is 5.44, a full 1.34 runs above the league average of 4.10, and that number is running in the wrong direction — it has climbed as his season has gone on rather than drifting back toward the mean. Bets on a turnaround are getting worse, not better. His expected wOBA allowed tells the same story: .353 against a .315 league average. The stuff underneath is thin, with a swinging-strike rate of 8.2% against league average of 11% and 17.1% strikeouts. His walk rate of 9.3% makes it worse. His fastball sits at 93.7 mph, right at the league mark, so there is no clear velocity upside to point at. This is not a pitcher giving away hard contact by accident. Sell. 0 K and a 4.97 ERA is streaming-only; drop the fringe arm rather than chase a window that isn't there.

VS His Norm

  • Walk %9.3%—−2.6% ▼vs his ~11.9% career norm
  • Strikeout %17.1%—0.0%vs his ~17.1% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALstable xERA 5.44 +1.34 vs league with no luck excuse
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed38.1%
38.1%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−1.9%vs his norm —
436 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed9.6%
9.6%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+1.6%vs his norm —
436 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.353
.353*
lg avg .315 ▲+.038vs his norm —
603 / 200 TBF
xERA5.44
5.44*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+1.34vs his norm —
603 / 200 TBF
ERA5.74
5.74*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+1.64vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
133.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %17.1%
norm17.1%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−4.9%vs his norm 0.0%
603 / 70 TBF
Walk %9.3%
norm9.3%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+1.3%vs his norm −2.6% ▼
603 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.309
.309*
lg avg .295 ▲+.014vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
436 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %8.2%
8.2%*
lg avg 11.0% ▼−2.8%vs his norm —
603 / 60 TBF
Chase %26.6%
26.6%*
lg avg 28.5% ▼−1.9%vs his norm —
603 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo93.7 mph
93.7 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−0.3 mphvs his norm —
2296 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 17.1%→17.1%signal0 K — K% 17.1% (signal) held to career ~17.1% → projected 17.1% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 5.44signal4.97 ERA — xERA 5.44 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 4.10 at 41 IP.
BB% 9.3% + contactsignal1.45 WHIP — a 9% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.303 gives a 1.52 skill WHIP, blended 65…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop0 K ROS, 4.97 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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