MLB Daily DeltaWeek 18 · July 23, 2026
week 18
this weekSELL
last weekSELL

Rhett Lowder

CIN·P
data as of July 23, 2026·week 18
Sell stable xERA 5.64 +1.54 vs league with no luck excuse; move on.high 0.90
ROSK 34ERA 5.10WHIP 1.47W 2–5SV 0

Lowder is a sell — his skill is clearly below league.

His expected ERA sits at 5.64, more than a run and a half above the league average of 4.10, and he has faced enough batters for that number to be reliable. He gives up above-average contact quality, with an expected wOBA allowed of .360 against a league average of .315. His strikeout rate is below league at 18.2%, and his walk rate is elevated at 10.4%. His swinging-strike rate is also below league. The underlying metrics are trending in the wrong direction — his xERA has been stepping up across the sample. There is no luck story to fall back on: his BABIP-against is near average. This is the level he is at. Sell. 34 K and a 5.10 ERA make Lowder a streaming-only arm even in deep leagues; sell now.

VS His Norm

  • Walk %10.4%—−1.5% ▼vs his ~11.9% career norm
  • Strikeout %18.2%—+1.1% ▲vs his ~17.1% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALstable xERA 5.64 +1.54 vs league with no luck excuse
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed39.6%
39.6%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−0.4%vs his norm —
235 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed8.9%
8.9%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.9%vs his norm —
235 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.360
.360*
lg avg .315 ▲+.045vs his norm —
335 / 200 TBF
xERA5.64
5.64*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+1.54vs his norm —
335 / 200 TBF
ERA5.75
5.75*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+1.65vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
72 / 200 IP
Strikeout %18.2%
norm18.2%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−3.8%vs his norm +1.1% ▲
335 / 70 TBF
Walk %10.4%
norm10.4%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+2.4%vs his norm −1.5% ▼
335 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.329
.329*
lg avg .295 ▲+.034vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
235 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %9.0%
9.0%*
lg avg 11.0% ▼−2.0%vs his norm —
335 / 60 TBF
Chase %26.2%
26.2%*
lg avg 28.5% ▼−2.3%vs his norm —
335 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo93.3 mph
93.3 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−0.7 mphvs his norm —
1248 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 18.2%→17.8%signal34 K — K% 18.2% (signal) tempered to career ~17.1% → projected 17.8% over ~47 remaining…
xERA 5.64signal5.10 ERA — xERA 5.64 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 4.10 at 41 IP.
BB% 10.4% + contactsignal1.47 WHIP — a 10% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.305 gives a 1.56 skill WHIP, blended 6…
run support + role2-5 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop34 K ROS, 5.10 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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