MLB Daily DeltaWeek 25 · September 10, 2026
week 25
this weekSELL
last weekSELL

Rhett Lowder

data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
Sell stable xERA 5.18 +1.08 vs league with no luck excuse; move on.high 0.87 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 9ERA 4.80WHIP 1.43W 1–1SV 0

Lowder is a sell — the skill gap is real and stable.

Stable skill below league and not unlucky. Sell.

VS His Norm

  • Walk %9.0%−2.9%vs his ~11.9% career norm
  • Strikeout %17.2%+0.1%vs his ~17.1% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALstable xERA 5.18 +1.08 vs league with no luck excuse
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed38.3%
38.3%*
lg avg 40.0% −1.7%vs his norm —
379 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed9.2%
9.2%*
lg avg 8.0% +1.2%vs his norm —
379 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.347
.347*
lg avg .315 +.032vs his norm —
522 / 200 TBF
xERA5.18
5.18*
lg avg 4.10 +1.08vs his norm —
522 / 200 TBF
ERA5.43
5.43*
lg avg 4.10 +1.33vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league averageexpect it to fall.
116 / 200 IP
Strikeout %17.2%
norm17.2%*
lg avg 22.0% −4.8%vs his norm +0.1%
522 / 70 TBF
Walk %9.0%
norm9.0%*
lg avg 8.0% +1.0%vs his norm −2.9%
522 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.304
.304*
lg avg .295 +.009vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league averageexpect it to fall.
379 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %8.3%
8.3%*
lg avg 11.0% −2.7%vs his norm —
522 / 60 TBF
Chase %27.1%
27.1%*
lg avg 28.5% −1.4%vs his norm —
522 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo93.6 mph
93.6 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph −0.4 mphvs his norm —
1994 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 17.2%→17.2%signal9 K — K% 17.2% (signal) tempered to career ~17.1% → projected 17.2% over ~11 remaining IP.
xERA 5.18signal4.80 ERA — xERA 5.18 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 4.10 at 41 IP.
BB% 9.0% + contactsignal1.43 WHIP — a 9% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.299 gives a 1.49 skill WHIP, blended 65…
run support + role1-1 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop9 K ROS, 4.80 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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