Rest of Season Projection
AaronCategoryTroy
72K ←28
4.76ERA →4.10
1.37WHIP →1.30
5–11W ←4–8
0SV0
Current Season
AaronCategoryTroy
39K ←4
4.20ERA →1.42
1.47WHIP →0.95
5W ←1
0SV0
What Each Player's System Trusts
Aaron Civale
- xeraSIGNALstable xERA 5.11 +1.01 vs league with no luck excuse
- p_k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 16% is stable and well below league — limits the ceiling
Troy Melton
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.197 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 4.32 is 1.51 above the ERA — regression coming
- p_k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 14% is stable and well below league — limits the ceiling
Aaron Civale: 72 K / 4.76 ERA. Troy Melton: 28 K / 4.10 ERA. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).