MLB Daily DeltaWeek 12 · June 13, 2026
Aaron Civale
ATH·P
Sell high·0.85
Change to
Rhett Lowder
CIN·P
Hold med·0.50
Change to

Rest of Season Projection

AaronCategoryRhett
73K 62
4.75ERA 4.29
1.37WHIP 1.36
5–11W 4–8
0SV0

Current Season

AaronCategoryRhett
39K 31
4.20ERA 5.01
1.47WHIP 1.45
5W 3
0SV0

What Each Player's System Trusts

Aaron Civale
  • xeraSIGNALstable xERA 5.10 +1.00 vs league with no luck excuse
  • p_k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 16% is stable and well below league — limits the ceiling
Rhett Lowder
  • xeraNOISEskill near league average (5.10)

Aaron Civale projects for 73 K / 4.75 ERA vs Rhett Lowder's 62 K / 4.29 ERA. Lowder leads in ERA by 0.46; Civale exceeds in K by 11. The sell verdict on Civale aligns with the skill gap.

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