Rest of Season Projection
AaronCategoryRhett
73K ←62
4.75ERA →4.29
1.37WHIP →1.36
5–11W ←4–8
0SV0
Current Season
AaronCategoryRhett
39K ←31
4.20ERA ←5.01
1.47WHIP →1.45
5W ←3
0SV0
What Each Player's System Trusts
Aaron Civale
- xeraSIGNALstable xERA 5.10 +1.00 vs league with no luck excuse
- p_k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 16% is stable and well below league — limits the ceiling
Rhett Lowder
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (5.10)
Aaron Civale projects for 73 K / 4.75 ERA vs Rhett Lowder's 62 K / 4.29 ERA. Lowder leads in ERA by 0.46; Civale exceeds in K by 11. The sell verdict on Civale aligns with the skill gap.