MLB Daily DeltaWeek 19 · August 1, 2026
Aaron Civale
CHC · P
Change to
Kodai Senga
NYM · P
Change to
Who's more valuable, rest of season

Kodai Senga.

He projects to help you in more roto categories the rest of the way — strikeouts, ERA, and WHIP. Aaron Civale’s box score looks better right now, but the luck-stripped projection flips it.

Head-to-head
K
ERA
WHIP
W
SV n/a

Kodai Senga wins 3 categories (K, ERA, WHIP); Aaron Civale wins 1 (W); SV n/a.

04

Under the hood

Underlying skill — each value vs league avg
Fastball Velolg 94.0 · higher = better
Aaron Civale
91.4
Kodai Senga
96.2
Swinging-Strike %lg 11.0% · higher = better
Aaron Civale
9.5%
Kodai Senga
13.1%
Strikeout %lg 22.0% · higher = better
Aaron Civale
17.6%
Kodai Senga
25.3%
Chase %lg 28.5% · higher = better
Aaron Civale
30.5%
Kodai Senga
26.7%
Hard-Hit % Allowedlg 40.0% · lower = better
Aaron Civale
45.8%
Kodai Senga
38.9%
Barrel % Allowedlg 8.0% · lower = better
Aaron Civale
10.0%
Kodai Senga
13.3%
xwOBA Allowedlg .315 · lower = better
Aaron Civale
.342
Kodai Senga
.354
stabilized — trust it · small sample yet · dashed = league avg · right = better
05

The tape

Rest-of-season projection · bold = leads
rest-of-season projection current season projection range
Rate · earned-run quality
ERAlower is better
Aaron Civale
2.148.25
lg xERA 4.10
now 4.20
4.68
Kodai Senga
2.148.25
lg xERA 4.10
now 9.00
4.10
WHIPlower is better
Aaron Civale
1.042.21
now 1.47
1.39
Kodai Senga
1.042.21
now 1.95
1.30

Volume · rest of season
Strikeoutshigher is better
Aaron Civale
4048.20
now 39
32
Kodai Senga
4048.20
now 23
41
Winshigher is better
Aaron Civale
.0007
now 5
35
Kodai Senga
.0007
now 0
00

SV — not applicable. Both pitch out of the rotation.

If you already own them — trade angle
SellAaron Civale — sell.conf 0.82
Hold · wait & seeKodai Senga — hold.conf 0.55
Tweet