MLB Daily DeltaWeek 27 · September 27, 2026
week 27
this weekSELL
last weekSELL

Kodai Senga

NYM·P
data as of September 27, 2026·week 27
Sell stable xERA 5.36 +1.26 vs league with no luck excuse; move on.high 0.90
ROSK 0ERA 4.92WHIP 1.47W 0–0SV 0

Senga is a sell — the skill is below league and nothing is hiding it.

His expected ERA is 5.36, a full run and a quarter above the league average of 4.10, and it has climbed across the sample rather than settling back. He has faced 283 batters, well past the 200 where that number becomes trustworthy. The problem is contact: he allows barrels on 13.5% of batted balls against a league rate of 8.0%, and his expected wOBA allowed is .351 versus .315 league. His walk rate of 14.5% is nearly double league average, so he is giving away the base and the hard contact. The strikeout rate of 26.5% is good, but it cannot cover the rest. There is no luck to point at here; this is the level. Sell. A 0 K / 4.92 ERA ROS line is a drag, not a hold — deep-league streamer at best, and even that's a stretch.

VS His Norm

  • Walk %14.5%—+3.2% ▲vs his ~11.3% career norm
  • Strikeout %26.5%—−0.0% ▼vs his ~26.5% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALstable xERA 5.36 +1.26 vs league with no luck excuse
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed39.3%
39.3%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−0.7%vs his norm —
163 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed13.5%
13.5%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+5.5%vs his norm —
163 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.351
.351*
lg avg .315 ▲+.036vs his norm —
283 / 200 TBF
xERA5.36
5.36*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+1.26vs his norm —
283 / 200 TBF
ERA7.34
7.34*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+3.24vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
61.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %26.5%
norm26.5%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+4.5%vs his norm −0.0% ▼
283 / 70 TBF
Walk %14.5%
norm14.5%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+6.5%vs his norm +3.2% ▲
283 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.309
.309*
lg avg .295 ▲+.014vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
163 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %12.9%
12.9%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+1.9%vs his norm —
283 / 60 TBF
Chase %25.9%
25.9%*
lg avg 28.5% ▼−2.6%vs his norm —
283 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo96.3 mph
96.3 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+2.3 mphvs his norm —
1129 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 26.5%→26.5%signal0 K — K% 26.5% (signal) held to career ~26.5% → projected 26.5% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 5.36signal4.92 ERA — xERA 5.36 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 4.10 at 20 IP.
BB% 14.5% + contactsignal1.47 WHIP — a 14% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.298 gives a 1.56 skill WHIP, blended 6…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop0 K ROS, 4.92 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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