MLB Daily DeltaWeek 18 · July 28, 2026
week 18
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD

Kodai Senga

NYM·P
data as of July 28, 2026·week 18
Hold · wait & see BABIP-against 0.327 elevated and unstable, the 8.85 ERA overstates the damage; but luck-free xERA 5.40 is +1.30 vs league, the level it regresses to is below average, not a buy; hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.55
ROSK 44WHIP 1.30ERA 4.10W 0–0SV 0

Senga is a hold — limited data, no edge either way.

His 8.85 ERA looks ugly, but that number is inflated by an elevated .327 BABIP-against, which is pure noise at 113 balls in play. Strip out the luck and his expected ERA is 5.40 — still more than a run above league average. His strikeout rate is above average at 25.3%, but his walk rate is 15.5%, nearly double the league norm, and his barrel rate allowed is 13.3% against an 8% league average. The fastball velocity is elite at 96.2 mph, but the command and contact suppression are not there yet. With fewer than 200 batters faced, both the noise metrics and the skill metrics are still settling. There is not enough data to buy or sell. Hold. 44 K and 4.10 ERA keep him a fringe hold, but with weak ratios and a 1.30 WHIP, he’s a streaming-only drop.

VS His Norm

  • Walk %15.5%—+4.2% ▲vs his ~11.3% career norm
  • Strikeout %25.3%—−1.2% ▼vs his ~26.5% career norm

Drivers

  • babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.327 elevated and unstable — the 8.85 ERA overstates the damage
  • xeraNOISEbut luck-free xERA 5.40 is +1.30 vs league — the level it regresses to is below average, not a buy
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed38.9%
38.9%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−1.1%vs his norm —
113 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed13.3%
13.3%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+5.3%vs his norm —
113 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.354
.354*
lg avg .315 ▲+.039vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is above the ~.315 league average — expect it to fall.
194 / 200 TBF
xERA5.40
5.40*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+1.30vs his norm —xERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
194 / 200 TBF
ERA8.85
8.85*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+4.75vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
40.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %25.3%
norm25.3%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+3.3%vs his norm −1.2% ▼
194 / 70 TBF
Walk %15.5%
norm15.5%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+7.5%vs his norm +4.2% ▲
194 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.327
.327*
lg avg .295 ▲+.032vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
113 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %13.1%
13.1%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+2.1%vs his norm —
194 / 60 TBF
Chase %26.7%
26.7%*
lg avg 28.5% ▼−1.8%vs his norm —
194 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo96.2 mph
96.2 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+2.2 mphvs his norm —
786 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 25.3%→25.9%signal44 K — K% 25.3% (signal) lifted to career ~26.5% → projected 25.9% over ~37 remaining IP.
xERA 5.40noise4.10 ERA — xERA 5.40 (noise) blended 0% skill / 100% league 4.10 at 20 IP.
BB% 15.5% + contactsignal1.30 WHIP — a 16% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.299 gives a 1.64 skill WHIP, blended 0…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop44 K ROS, 4.10 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

Tweet
Compare with

Comparisons

head-to-head matchups