Rest of Season Projection
AaronCategoryEduardo
72K →79
4.76ERA →4.57
1.37WHIP ←1.38
5–11W ←4–10
0SV0
Current Season
AaronCategoryEduardo
39K →52
4.20ERA →2.24
1.47WHIP →1.19
5W5
0SV0
What Each Player's System Trusts
Aaron Civale
- xeraSIGNALstable xERA 5.11 +1.01 vs league with no luck excuse
- p_k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 16% is stable and well below league — limits the ceiling
Eduardo Rodriguez
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.254 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 4.82 is 2.28 above the ERA — regression coming
Aaron Civale: 72 K / 4.76 ERA. Eduardo Rodriguez: 79 K / 4.57 ERA. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).