Rest of Season Projection
EduardoCategoryMatt
81K ←67
4.45ERA →4.09
1.35WHIP →1.30
5–10W ←2–4
0SV0
Current Season
EduardoCategoryMatt
52K ←22
2.24ERA ←8.49
1.19WHIP ←1.71
5W ←1
0SV0
What Each Player's System Trusts
Eduardo Rodriguez
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.257 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 4.64 is 2.12 above the ERA — regression coming
Matt Waldron
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 3.78 sits 0.32 below league — a real arm the ERA is hiding
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.384 elevated and unstable — bloating the ERA
Eduardo Rodriguez: 82 K / 4.45 ERA. Matt Waldron: 68 K / 4.09 ERA. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).