MLB Daily DeltaWeek 31 · October 26, 2026
Engraved portrait of Eduardo Rodriguez
week 31
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekSELL-HIGH

Eduardo Rodriguez

AZ·P
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
Sell High luck-free xERA 4.30 is 1.40 above the ERA, regression coming — BABIP-against 0.275 suppressed and unstable, flattering the ERA; sell into the hype before regression.high 0.95
ROSK 0ERA 4.23WHIP 1.33W 0–0SV 0

Rodriguez is a sell-high — the ERA is sitting on borrowed luck.

The 2.90 ERA is the number that gets him traded, and it's the number to trade away. His BABIP-against is .275 against a league average of .295, and that gap is luck, not skill — BABIP-against needs around 800 balls in play to be reliable and he has 582. His expected ERA is 4.30, a full 1.40 above what the box score shows, and that xERA has climbed as the sample has grown. He strikes out 18.1% of batters against a 22% league average and his fastball averages 92.1 mph, three miles below league, so there's no swing-and-miss foundation under the surface line. The rest of his profile is ordinary at best. Owners are paying for the ERA. Sell high. A 0 K / 4.23 ERA / 1.33 WHIP rest-of-season line is a drop, so the sell window matters less than the waiver claim.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %18.1%—−4.9% ▼vs his ~23.0% career norm
  • Walk %7.9%—−0.3% ▼vs his ~8.2% career norm

Drivers

  • babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.275 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
  • xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 4.30 is 1.40 above the ERA — regression coming
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed32.8%
32.8%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−7.2%vs his norm —
582 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed7.6%
7.6%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.4%vs his norm —
582 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.318
.318*
lg avg .315 ▲+.003vs his norm —
788 / 200 TBF
xERA4.30
4.30*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.20vs his norm —
788 / 200 TBF
ERA2.90
2.90*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.20vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
189.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %18.1%
norm18.1%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−3.9%vs his norm −4.9% ▼
788 / 70 TBF
Walk %7.9%
norm7.9%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.1%vs his norm −0.3% ▼
788 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.275
.275*
lg avg .295 ▼−.020vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
582 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %10.7%
10.7%*
lg avg 11.0% ▼−0.3%vs his norm —
788 / 60 TBF
Chase %30.6%
30.6%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+2.1%vs his norm —
788 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo92.1 mph
92.1 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−1.9 mphvs his norm —
3067 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 18.1%→19.1%signal0 K — K% 18.1% (signal) lifted to career ~23.0% → projected 19.1% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 4.30signal4.23 ERA — xERA 4.30 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 4.10 at 72 IP.
BB% 7.9% + contactsignal1.33 WHIP — a 8% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.281 gives a 1.34 skill WHIP, blended 65…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop0 K ROS, 4.23 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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