week 10
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekSELL-HIGH
————————
Eduardo Rodriguez
data as of June 3, 2026·week 10
Rodriguez is a sell-high — ERA is BABIP luck, not skill.
His ERA is 2.24, but the skill metrics don't support it. His BABIP-against is .258, 37 points below league average, and BABIP-against needs around 800 balls in play to be reliable — he has 218. That gap is luck, not run prevention. His expected ERA is 4.52, more than two runs higher, and his xERA has been stepping up across the sample. His strikeout rate is 17.6%, well below league average, and his walk rate is 8.8%, slightly above. The regression window is open. Sell high.
Sell High
high0.95
Drivers
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.258 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 4.52 is 2.28 above the ERA — regression coming
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed35.8%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−4.2%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL218 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed7.8%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.2%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL218 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.334
lg avg .315 ▲+.019trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL296 / 200 TBF
xERA4.52
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.42trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL296 / 200 TBF
ERA2.24
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.86too early to trust
NOISE72.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %17.6%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−4.4%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL296 / 70 TBF
Walk %8.8%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.8%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL296 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.258
lg avg .295 ▼−.037too early to trust
NOISE218 / 800 BIP