Rest of Season Projection
LuisCategoryTroy
94K ←28
4.48ERA →4.10
1.35WHIP →1.30
2–4W →4–8
0SV0
Current Season
LuisCategoryTroy
56K ←4
5.53ERA →1.42
1.45WHIP →0.95
2W ←1
0SV0
What Each Player's System Trusts
Luis Castillo
- xeraSIGNALstable xERA 4.69 +0.59 vs league with no luck excuse
Troy Melton
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.197 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 4.33 is 1.52 above the ERA — regression coming
- p_k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 14% is stable and well below league — limits the ceiling
Luis Castillo: 94 K / 4.48 ERA. Troy Melton: 28 K / 4.10 ERA. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).