Rest of Season Projection
AaronCategoryLuis
71K →94
4.76ERA →4.48
1.37WHIP →1.35
5–11W ←2–4
0SV0
Current Season
AaronCategoryLuis
39K →56
4.20ERA ←5.53
1.47WHIP →1.45
5W ←2
0SV0
What Each Player's System Trusts
Aaron Civale
- xeraSIGNALstable xERA 5.12 +1.02 vs league with no luck excuse
- p_k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 16% is stable and well below league — limits the ceiling
Luis Castillo
- xeraSIGNALstable xERA 4.69 +0.59 vs league with no luck excuse
Aaron Civale: 71 K / 4.76 ERA. Luis Castillo: 94 K / 4.48 ERA. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).