MLB Daily DeltaWeek 27 · September 27, 2026
week 27
this weekSELL
last weekSELL

Jimmy Herget

COL·P
data as of September 27, 2026·week 27
Sell stable xERA 4.50 +0.40 vs league with no luck excuse; move on.med 0.67
ROSK 0ERA 4.22WHIP 1.43W 0–0SV 0–0

Herget is a sell — his expected ERA is above league

His expected ERA is 4.50, which is .40 above the league average of 4.10, and he has faced enough batters for that number to be reliable. That indicates his true run-prevention skill is below league average, and his expected wOBA allowed of .325 sits .010 above league, confirming the picture. His strikeout rate of 19.8% is below the league average of 22.0%, and he walks 11.0% of batters, well above the 8.0% league mark. That combination of low strikeouts and high walks makes it hard to prevent runs. His xERA has been stepping up across the sample, so the trend is moving in the wrong direction. There is no luck story here; the surface and the skill agree. Sell. A 0 K / 4.22 ERA / 1.43 WHIP line is waiver-wire drag, not a hold.

VS His Norm

  • Walk %11.0%—+3.7% ▲vs his ~7.3% career norm
  • Strikeout %19.8%—−2.9% ▼vs his ~22.7% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALstable xERA 4.50 +0.40 vs league with no luck excuse
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed37.3%
37.3%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−2.7%vs his norm —
161 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed9.9%
9.9%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+1.9%vs his norm —
161 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.325
.325*
lg avg .315 ▲+.010vs his norm —
237 / 200 TBF
xERA4.50
4.50*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.40vs his norm —
237 / 200 TBF
ERA5.70
5.70*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+1.60vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
53.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %19.8%
norm19.8%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−2.2%vs his norm −2.9% ▼
237 / 70 TBF
Walk %11.0%
norm11.0%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+3.0%vs his norm +3.7% ▲
237 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.309
.309*
lg avg .295 ▲+.014vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
161 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %11.8%
11.8%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+0.8%vs his norm —
237 / 60 TBF
Chase %29.8%
29.8%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+1.3%vs his norm —
237 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo92.0 mph
92.0 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−2.0 mphvs his norm —
946 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 19.8%→21.1%signal0 K — K% 19.8% (signal) lifted to career ~22.7% → projected 21.1% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 4.50signal4.22 ERA — xERA 4.50 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 3.70 at 16 IP.
BB% 11.0% + contactsignal1.43 WHIP — a 11% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.298 gives a 1.53 skill WHIP, blended 6…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (setup)0-0 SV — role: setup, in the save mix only situationally.
rosterdrop4.22 ERA, 1.43 WHIP

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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