week 17
this weekBUY-LOW
last weekHOLD
Brent Suter
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
flipped from HOLD on July 18, 2026
Buy Low luck-free xERA 4.10 is right around league, a usable arm the ERA is hiding; fastball velocity stable and above league, the arm is fine — BABIP-against 0.331 elevated and unstable, bloating the ERA; buy the player, not the number.high 0.76 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 21ERA 3.96WHIP 1.31W 0–1SV 0
Suter is a buy-low — ERA is BABIP noise, not skill.
ERA ugly, but the skill it regresses to is league-or-better and the BABIP-against is unsustainable. Buy low.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %20.6%—+0.6% ▲vs his ~20.0% career norm
- Walk %6.7%—+0.4% ▲vs his ~6.3% career norm
Drivers
- xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 4.10 is right around league — a usable arm the ERA is hiding
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.331 elevated and unstable — bloating the ERA
- p_fastball_veloSIGNALfastball velocity stable and above league — the arm is fine
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed28.7%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−11.3%vs his norm —
160 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed5.6%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−2.4%vs his norm —
160 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.314
lg avg .315 ▼−.001vs his norm —
223 / 200 TBF
xERA4.10
lg avg 4.10 0.00vs his norm —
223 / 200 TBF
ERA4.64
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.54vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
52.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %20.6%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−1.4%vs his norm +0.6% ▲
223 / 70 TBF
Walk %6.7%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.3%vs his norm +0.4% ▲
223 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.331
lg avg .295 ▲+.036vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
160 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %10.5%
lg avg 11.0% ▼−0.5%vs his norm —
223 / 60 TBF
Chase %29.8%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+1.3%vs his norm —
223 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo87.3 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−6.7 mphvs his norm —
918 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 20.6%→20.3%signal21 K — K% 20.6% (signal) tempered to career ~20.0% → projected 20.3% over ~25 remaining…
xERA 4.10signal3.96 ERA — xERA 4.10 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 3.70 at 33 IP.
BB% 6.7% + contactsignal1.31 WHIP — a 7% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.302 gives a 1.34 skill WHIP, blended 65…
run support + role0-1 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (setup)0 SV — role: setup, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop3.96 ERA, 1.31 WHIP
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.