MLB Daily DeltaWeek 27 · September 30, 2026
week 27
this weekSELL-HIGH
last week—

Jose Franco

CIN·P
data as of September 30, 2026·week 27
Sell High BABIP-against 0.271 suppressed and unstable, flattering the ERA; luck-free xERA 5.23 is 0.80 above the ERA, regression coming; sell into the hype before regression.high 0.87
ROSK 0ERA 3.70WHIP 1.24W 0–0SV 0

Franco is a sell-high — his ERA is running on BABIP luck.

His ERA is 4.43, better than the league average of 4.10, and the number holding it down is his BABIP-against: .271, below the league mark of .295. BABIP-against needs around 800 balls in play to be reliable, and he has 62. That gap is luck, not skill. His expected ERA is 5.23 — 0.80 above his actual ERA — and that difference is the regression coming. The stable metrics don't offer much cover either: he strikes out 16.3% of batters, below the 22.0% league average, and his swinging-strike rate of 9.2% sits under league. The 95.1 mph fastball is a real tool, but one pitch is not a profile. Limited data here — no baseline or track record to lean on, just the gap between the surface and the skill. Sell high. Deep-league trade window: flip the 3.70 ERA / 1.24 WHIP line before 0 K regression makes him a waiver-streamer.

Drivers

  • babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.271 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
  • xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 5.23 is 0.80 above the ERA — regression coming
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed33.9%
33.9%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−6.1%vs his norm —
62 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed9.7%
9.7%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+1.7%vs his norm —
62 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.347
.347*
lg avg .315 ▲+.032vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is above the ~.315 league average — expect it to fall.
92 / 200 TBF
xERA5.23
5.23*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+1.13vs his norm —xERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
92 / 200 TBF
ERA4.43
4.43*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.33vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
20.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %16.3%
16.3%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−5.7%vs his norm —
92 / 70 TBF
Walk %16.3%
16.3%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+8.3%vs his norm —Walk % is above the ~8.0% league average — expect it to fall.
92 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.271
.271*
lg avg .295 ▼−.024vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
62 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %9.2%
9.2%*
lg avg 11.0% ▼−1.8%vs his norm —
92 / 60 TBF
Chase %23.3%
23.3%*
lg avg 28.5% ▼−5.2%vs his norm —
92 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo95.1 mph
95.1 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+1.1 mphvs his norm —
348 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 16.3%→17.8%signal0 K — K% 16.3% (signal) lifted to RP mean ~24.0% → projected 17.8% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 5.23noise3.70 ERA — xERA 5.23 (noise) blended 0% skill / 100% league 3.70 at 20 IP.
BB% 16.3% + contactnoise1.24 WHIP — a 16% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.293 gives a 1.84 skill WHIP, blended 0…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (middle)0 SV — role: middle, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep3.70 ERA, 1.24 WHIP

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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