week 18
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekSELL-HIGH
Pierce Johnson
data as of July 28, 2026·week 18
Sell High BABIP-against 0.262 suppressed and unstable, flattering the ERA; luck-free xERA 6.19 is 1.09 above the ERA, regression coming; sell into the hype before regression.high 0.95 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 19ERA 3.75WHIP 1.24W 1–2SV 0–1
Johnson is a sell-high — ERA is luck, xERA says regression.
Surface ERA flattered by an unsustainably low BABIP-against; xERA says regression. Sell high.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %20.0%—−8.0% ▼vs his ~28.0% career norm
Drivers
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.262 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 6.19 is 1.09 above the ERA — regression coming
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed40.7%
lg avg 40.0% ▲+0.7%vs his norm —
91 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed13.2%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+5.2%vs his norm —
91 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.375
lg avg .315 ▲+.060vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is above the ~.315 league average — expect it to fall.
130 / 200 TBF
xERA6.19
lg avg 4.10 ▲+2.09vs his norm —xERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
130 / 200 TBF
ERA5.10
lg avg 4.10 ▲+1.00vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
30 / 200 IP
Strikeout %20.0%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−2.0%vs his norm −8.0% ▼
130 / 70 TBF
Walk %10.0%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+2.0%vs his norm −0.5% ▼Walk % is below his ~10.5% norm — expect it to rise.
130 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.262
lg avg .295 ▼−.033vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
91 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %11.0%
lg avg 11.0% ▼−0.0%vs his norm —
130 / 60 TBF
Chase %32.6%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+4.1%vs his norm —
130 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo95.4 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+1.4 mphvs his norm —
521 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 20.0%→24.9%signal19 K — K% 20.0% (signal) lifted to career ~28.0% → projected 24.9% over ~17 remaining IP.
xERA 6.19noise3.75 ERA — xERA 6.19 (noise) blended 2% skill / 98% league 3.70 at 22 IP.
BB% 10.0% + contactnoise1.24 WHIP — a 10% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.291 gives a 1.45 skill WHIP, blended 2…
run support + role1-2 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (setup)0-1 SV — role: setup, in the save mix only situationally.
rosterdeep3.75 ERA, 1.24 WHIP
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.