week 12
this weekSELL-HIGH
last week—
Pierce Johnson
data as of June 13, 2026·week 12
ON THE 15-DAY IL
Sell High BABIP-against 0.267 suppressed and unstable, flattering the ERA; luck-free xERA 6.23 is 2.96 above the ERA, regression coming; sell into the hype before regression.high 0.95 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 37ERA 3.75WHIP 1.24W 2–5SV 1–3
Johnson is a sell-high — ERA is luck, xERA is truth.
Surface ERA flattered by an unsustainably low BABIP-against; xERA says regression. Sell high.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %21.7%—−6.3% ▼vs his ~28.0% career norm
Drivers
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.267 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 6.23 is 2.96 above the ERA — regression coming
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed35.9%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−4.1%vs his norm —
64 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed14.1%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+6.1%vs his norm —
64 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.381
lg avg .315 ▲+.066vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is above the ~.315 league average — expect it to fall.
92 / 200 TBF
xERA6.23
lg avg 4.10 ▲+2.13vs his norm —xERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
92 / 200 TBF
ERA3.27
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.83vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
22 / 200 IP
Strikeout %21.7%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−0.3%vs his norm −6.3% ▼
92 / 70 TBF
Walk %8.7%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.7%vs his norm −1.8% ▼Walk % is below his ~10.5% norm — expect it to rise.
92 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.267
lg avg .295 ▼−.028vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
64 / 800 BIP
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 21.7%→26.0%signal37 K — K% 21.7% (signal) lifted to career ~28.0% → projected 26.0% over ~34 remaining IP.
xERA 6.23noise3.75 ERA — xERA 6.23 (noise) blended 2% skill / 98% league 3.70 at 22 IP.
BB% 8.7% + contactnoise1.24 WHIP — a 9% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.293 gives a 1.37 skill WHIP, blended 2%…
run support + role2-5 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (setup)1-3 SV — role: setup, in the save mix only situationally.
rosterdeep3.75 ERA, 1.24 WHIP
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.