MLB Daily DeltaWeek 27 · September 27, 2026
Engraved portrait of Pierce Johnson
week 27
this weekSELL
last weekSELL

Pierce Johnson

CIN·P
data as of September 27, 2026·week 27
Sell stable xERA 4.92 +0.82 vs league with no luck excuse; move on.high 0.80
ROSK 0ERA 4.49WHIP 1.35W 0–0SV 0–0

Johnson is a sell — his expected ERA says he's below league.

His expected ERA is 4.92, .82 of a run above the league average of 4.10, and his sample of 211 batters faced is past the point where that number becomes reliable. There is no luck story here to soften it — his BABIP-against is not suppressing or inflating the line, so the ERA you see is close to the pitcher he is. He strikes out 19.9% of batters, below the league average of 22%, while walking 9%, above league average. That combination leaves a thin margin for weak contact to cover, and it hasn't. His expected ERA has been stepping up across the sample. The stuff is not missing bats and the results are slipping. Sell. With 0 K and a 4.49 ERA ROS, he's a drop-tier drag — fade the production and cut him.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %19.9%—−8.1% ▼vs his ~28.0% career norm
  • Walk %9.0%—−1.5% ▼vs his ~10.5% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALstable xERA 4.92 +0.82 vs league with no luck excuse
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed37.3%
37.3%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−2.7%vs his norm —
150 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed10.0%
10.0%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+2.0%vs his norm —
150 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.338
.338*
lg avg .315 ▲+.023vs his norm —
211 / 200 TBF
xERA4.92
4.92*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.82vs his norm —
211 / 200 TBF
ERA4.62
4.62*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.52vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
48.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %19.9%
norm19.9%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−2.1%vs his norm −8.1% ▼
211 / 70 TBF
Walk %9.0%
norm9.0%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+1.0%vs his norm −1.5% ▼
211 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.277
.277*
lg avg .295 ▼−.018vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
150 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %11.1%
11.1%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+0.1%vs his norm —
211 / 60 TBF
Chase %33.5%
33.5%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+5.0%vs his norm —
211 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo95.8 mph
95.8 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+1.8 mphvs his norm —
840 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 19.9%→23.9%signal0 K — K% 19.9% (signal) lifted to career ~28.0% → projected 23.9% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 4.92signal4.49 ERA — xERA 4.92 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 3.70 at 22 IP.
BB% 9.0% + contactsignal1.35 WHIP — a 9% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.292 gives a 1.41 skill WHIP, blended 65…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (setup)0-0 SV — role: setup, in the save mix only situationally.
rosterdrop4.49 ERA, 1.35 WHIP

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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